As Christmas and Boxing Day draw near, the weather forecast paints a dynamic picture across major capital cities. From wet and stormy conditions in the north, east, and southeast to cooler and windy weather in the south, and hot, dry conditions out west, here's what we are forecasting for the days ahead. 

As mentioned earlier here and here, a robust upper-level cut-off low (image), and its associated pool of cold and drier air, is set to sweep across the southeast and east. Coupled with a strong jetstream (image), this system is expected to trigger severe thunderstorms over the next three days, impacting Brisbane, Sydney, Canberra, and Melbourne. 

Image: Winds at 300 hPa denoting the jetstream, and upper-level cut-off low in the southeast (coloured contours and isotachs, winds greater than 64 knots in purple indicate the jetstream). Geopotential height at 500 hPa denoting the cut-off low in the mid-atmosphere (white contours). 

Brisbane 

The next three days in Brisbane are slated to be hot, muggy, and uncomfortable. Expect severe thunderstorms sweeping through the capital of the Sunshine State on the afternoon and early evening of Sunday, the 24th. However, there's a silver lining—these storms are expected to subside just in time for a drier but humid Christmas Eve, with temperatures reaching around 23°C near midnight. The pattern continues on Christmas Day and Boxing Day, with another round of thunderstorms forecast for the afternoons and evenings each day. Be prepared for the possibility of damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and large hail throughout these days in Brisbane. 

Sydney 

In Sydney, the upcoming three days will bring a blend of mild-to-warm temperatures, high humidity, and stormy weather. Following a wet and stormy Sunday on the 24th, storms may persist into Christmas Eve, with temperatures reaching a peak of 19°C around midnight. Overnight, showers will gradually clear, leading to a foggy morning on Monday the 25th. As the day progresses, the fog will dissipate by mid-morning, giving rise to a partly cloudy afternoon with temperatures ranging between 25-26°C. Expect more showers and storms to roll through the city in the afternoon, possibly lingering into the evening. Boxing Day is anticipated to bring milder conditions, with the potential for additional severe storms on the horizon. 

Canberra 

In Canberra, the Bush Capital, anticipate weather conditions mirroring Sydney's, characterised by daily showers and the potential for severe storms. Although temperatures will be slightly cooler, reaching a peak of 15°C on Christmas Eve, expect a warming trend with a top of 23°C on Christmas Day and 25°C on Boxing Day. 

Melbourne 

Rain and storms are set to kick off on Christmas Eve in Melbourne, accompanied by fresh to strong winds, shaping up for a wet, windy, and stormy night with temperatures ranging from 17°C to 18°C. Expect the deluge to persist on Christmas Day, with heavy rain and severe storms dominating the scene, reaching a top of 23°C. The weather drama continues into Boxing Day, featuring more isolated yet potentially severe storms. 

Adelaide 

With a high-pressure ridge slowly emerging behind the trough in the east, Adelaide is in for cooler and breezier days. On Christmas Eve, partly cloudy skies and the chance of light showers will accompany cooler temperatures of 13 to 14°C at midnight. Anticipate mostly cloudy and windy conditions on both Christmas Day and Boxing Day, with the thermometer struggling to climb above 20°C. Strong winds will add a chill, making it feel more like the mid-teens on Christmas Day. 

Hobart 

A lingering high-pressure ridge will maintain mostly dry conditions over the Apple Isle’s capital. Christmas Eve is expected to be mostly cloudy with light showers, and temperatures in the mid-teens. The following days will bring partly cloudy skies and pleasant temperatures in the low 20s, accompanied by light to moderate winds on both Christmas and Boxing Day.  

Perth 

A trough extending from the interior to the west coast promises mostly sunny, hot, and dry days on Sunday the 24th and Christmas Day in Perth. A dry Christmas Eve with temperatures reaching 25°C sets the stage for a predominantly sunny and hot Christmas, peaking at 35°C with gusty winds in the afternoon. Boxing Day will start out cloudy, gradually clearing in the afternoon, offering a milder day with a top of 25°C and gusty seabreezes. 

Darwin 

Up north in Darwin, Christmas Eve will be greeted with partly cloudy skies and around 30°C at midnight. The following two days will feature lingering partly cloudy conditions, with temperatures in the mid-30s and the potential for afternoon thunderstorms on both Christmas and Boxing Day. 

No matter the weather at your place, be it rain or shine, we wish you a joyous and safe Christmas and holidays!