For the first time this spring and indeed the first time since September 2023, a warning for catastrophic fire danger has been issued for part of New South Wales.

The catastrophic rating applies to the lower part of Central West Plains forecast district and includes the area around large towns like Dubbo and Parkes. Extreme fire danger has been declared in all or part of 10 other districts, including the greater Sydney region.

Source: NSW Rural Fire Service.

Weatherzone meteorologist Joel Pippard explains that the fire danger is elevated across most of NSW this Wednesday due to a combination of heat, persistent strong winds and very low relative humidity – as northwesterly winds surge across southeastern Australia fuelled by a strong low pressure system centred over waters south of Tasmania.

He also adds that the region where catastrophic danger has been declared has been relatively dry over the last six months or so.

This is illustrated in the two maps below. The first one shows how NSW was the state with the largest rainfall deficiency in October 2025. The state as a whole was 59% down on average for rainfall.

Image: Rainfall deciles across Australia for October 2025. Source: BoM.

The second map shows similar data to the one above over the entire so-called “cool season”, which is the six-month period from April to October inclusive. In both maps, parts of the NSW Central West have patches of "very much below average" rainfall.

Image: Rainfall deciles across Australia for the six-month period from April to October 2025 Source: BoM. https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/#tabs=Summary

Catastrophic fire danger is the most serious of the four levels of fire danger which were implemented nationally in 2022 by the Australian and New Zealand National Council for Fire and Emergency Services (AFAC).