There are just nine days left until Christmas, so what kind of weather can we expect to see across Australia on Christmas Day in 2022?

Before we look at the weather for Christmas Day, it’s important to understand the limitations of predicting weather nine days in advance.

While modern computer-based weather models do an outstanding job of predicting weather patterns over the next three to five days, they aren’t great at looking further than about seven days ahead.

At longer ranges of seven to 10 days, there is usually so much uncertainty in the forecast that it’s better to look at broad weather patterns rather than what to expect at any one location.

The maps below show why meteorologists can’t pull together a reliable forecast for Christmas Day just yet. These maps show the predicted accumulated rainfall and maximum temperature on December 25, using three different forecast models that were run at 11pm AEST on Thursday, December 15.

A few things stand out on the maps above:

All three models shown here predict rain in several Australian states and territories on Christmas Day. However, there is a fair amount of disagreement about where and how much rain will fall on December 25.

There is potential for heavy rain in the Interior, but it is not guaranteed.

All models anticipate rain in the northern tropics, which is typical for this time of year.

Two of three models expect temperatures to exceed 40ºC in the northwest of WA.

Two models also predict relatively cool weather in parts of southeastern Australia.

There is too much model uncertainty to know in detail what the weather will be like in any of Australia’s capital cities on Christmas Day. However, it is currently unlikely that any capital city will exceed 40ºC on December 25, and some cities could be cooler-than-average.

This outlook may come as a relief to anyone who spent Christmas in Perth last year, when the city was hit by a holiday heatwave and reached a sweltering 42.8ºC on December 25. This was the highest Christmas Day temperature ever recorded in an Australian capital city, beating 42.1ºC from Adelaide in 1888.