A developing El Niño could reduce how many hurricanes form in the Atlantic basin this season, which officially begins today.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released their predictions for this upcoming tropical season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from today, June 1, through to November 30.

In an average season, the Atlantic basin typically sees around 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

NOAA is predicting a below-average season for 2026, with 8-14 named storms. Within those storms, they expect 3-6 of those to become hurricane strength with 1-3 of those becoming a major hurricane. A major hurricane is defined as any hurricane of Category 3 strength or higher.

In terms of probabilities, NOAA gives a 55% probability that this will be a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of an above-normal season.

The official outlook from NOAA is also being reflected by some other forecast agencies. DTN’s meteorologists are predicting a slightly below average hurricane season, with a prediction of 13 named storms.

A key factor in the below normal Atlantic hurricane season forecast is El Niño, which is predicted to develop this summer and intensify during peak hurricane season. Typically, when El Nino conditions develop in the Pacific, it can suppress tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin.

The names for upcoming tropical systems have also been released ahead of the 2026 hurricane season. The first system will be named Arthur, followed by Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly.

Image: Alphabetical list of names that will be used during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Source: NOAA.

NOAA will also be introducing several new features this season which aim to enhance communication and advance how hurricanes are analyzed and forecast. These include implementing an improved version of the tropical cyclone forecast cone graphic, testing an experimental high-resolution Seasonal Forecast System and incorporating data from small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUAS) into NOAA’s hurricane model.