Southwest 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
5
6
7
8
med
9
high
10
high
11
low
12
13
low
14
low
15
high
16
high
17
high
18
med
19
high
20
low
21
22
low
23
low
24
25
26
low
27
low
28
med
29
high
30
low
31
med
Sep 1
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 August to 20 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 7 September to 11 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August, and 17 August to 21 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 August to 17 August, 18 August to 22 August, and 22 August to 26 August.

Issued Aug 4

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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