Southwest 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
26
27
low
28
29
30
31
med
Nov 1
low
2
low
3
4
5
low
6
7
low
8
9
med
10
low
11
12
low
13
14
low
15
low
16
low
17
low
18
19
low
20
med
21
med
22
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 November to 13 November, 19 November to 23 November, and 26 November to 30 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 October to 4 November, and 14 November to 18 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 November to 13 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 26 November to 30 November.

Issued Oct 25

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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