Central 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
17
low
18
med
19
low
20
low
21
low
22
low
23
med
24
high
25
low
26
low
27
low
28
med
29
med
30
med
Dec 1
med
2
3
low
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
low
8
9
10
low
11
low
12
low
13
low
14
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 November to 26 November, 26 November to 30 November, and 7 December to 11 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 November to 28 November, 28 November to 2 December, and 16 December to 20 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 November to 26 November, 4 December to 8 December, and 8 December to 12 December.

Issued Nov 15

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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