Mid North 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
low
24
high
25
med
26
med
27
low
28
low
29
30
31
Jun 1
2
3
4
5
med
6
med
7
med
8
low
9
low
10
11
high
12
low
13
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 May to 28 May, 5 June to 9 June, and 9 June to 13 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 May to 28 May, 30 May to 3 June, and 16 June to 20 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 24 May to 28 May, 5 June to 9 June, and 9 June to 13 June.

Issued May 16

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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