Mid North 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
26
27
28
high
29
med
30
Jul 1
med
2
3
4
low
5
6
7
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
low
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
med
19
med
20
21
22
23
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 July to 11 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 22 July to 26 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 June to 27 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 16 July to 20 July, 24 July to 28 July, and 28 July to 1 August.

Issued Jun 25

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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