Roper-McArthur 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
10
11
12
13
med
14
low
15
low
16
low
17
low
18
low
19
med
20
low
21
22
23
24
25
26
low
27
28
29
30
31
low
Jan 1
2
low
3
low
4
5
6
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 December to 17 December, 17 December to 21 December, and 8 January to 12 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 December to 19 December, and 4 January to 8 January.

Issued Dec 8

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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