Roper-McArthur 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
20
21
high
22
high
23
med
24
high
25
med
26
27
28
29
30
31
Nov 1
2
3
low
4
low
5
6
low
7
low
8
9
10
low
11
low
12
low
13
14
15
low
16
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 October to 29 October, 2 November to 6 November, and 13 November to 17 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 October to 31 October, 31 October to 4 November, and 6 November to 10 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 November to 5 November, 10 November to 14 November, and 19 November to 23 November.

Issued Oct 18

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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