Arnhem 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
19
med
20
low
21
22
23
low
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Oct 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 September to 28 September, 1 October to 5 October, and 11 October to 15 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18 October to 22 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 September to 1 October, 8 October to 12 October, and 14 October to 18 October.

Issued Sep 18

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Wintry weekend in southwestern Australia

17:19 EST

It's going to be a cold, wet and windy weekend in southwestern districts of Western Australia, with thunderstorms and small hail likely in some areas.

Severe thunderstorm outbreak in the outback

14:19 EST

Severe thunderstorms will develop over outback areas of South Australia, Queensland, NSW, and Victoria during the next two days, with heavy rain, large hail, destructive wind, and tornadoes all possible.