Alice Springs 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
med
med
low
low
low
low
high
low
low
low
low
low
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 June to 30 June, 10 July to 14 July, and 16 July to 20 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 June to 2 July, 10 July to 14 July, and 16 July to 20 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 June to 4 July, 11 July to 15 July, and 16 July to 20 July.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Brisbane's frigid morning
13:34 EST
Brisbane continued its run of cold and below average mornings on Sunday and more are on the way. Overnight temperatures throughout the suburbs of Brisbane were mostly three to five degrees below the June average.
Swirling low finally easing flooding rain over Victoria and Tasmania
11:32 EST
Rainfall has lashed Victoria and Tasmania over the last couple of days, causing flooding in many areas.
