Alice Springs 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 23 August to 27 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 July to 25 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 4 August to 8 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 21 August to 25 August.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
The week ahead for NSW
15:11 EST
A cold front is passing over southern parts of New South Wales, with cold air in its wake and unusually warm air ahead of the system over central and northern areas.
Dry winds elevate the risk of fire in the Top End
13:07 EST
With strong winds and temperatures on the rise, there has been severe fire danger declared for the Darwin and Adelaide River and Northern Fire Protection Area fire forecast areas.
Country towns close to reaching 'day zero', as water supplies dry up in the drought
12:19 EST
Across New South Wales and Queensland's southern downs, country towns are approaching their own 'day zero', as water supplies dry up in the drought.
