ACT 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
high
med
med
med
low
low
low
low
low
med
med
high
high
med
med
med
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 April to 27 April, 27 April to 1 May, and 6 May to 10 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 April to 25 April, and 6 May to 10 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 19 April to 23 April, 23 April to 27 April, and 4 May to 8 May.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
Display your Local Weather here
automatically each time you visit us:
Rotates through Temperature,
Wind, Humidity and RainUse the Search Bar above
to find your Local, and go to the Local page
Click "Set My Local"
button next to the location name
Weather News
Weather forecasts are not immune to COVID-19
13:19 EDT
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is concerned about the impact COVID-19 is having on international weather forecasts and climate monitoring.
Australian agriculture bounces back to life as BOM heralds wet start to 2020
12:30 EDT
Parts of eastern Australia have seen the wettest start to a year in nearly a decade, sending agricultural production bursting back to life.
Another wet month for parched Murray-Darling Basin
15:54 EDT
For the first time since 2017, the Murray-Darling Basin has just had back-to-back months with above average rain.
