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Thunderstorms are scattering across inland QLD & northern NSW, due to an active trough. A front is bringing brisk winds & showers to TAS, southeast SA & southern VIC, & snow to the TAS highlands. A high is keeping extreme heat confined to the northern tropics & elsewhere dry.
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23 Oct 2024, 11:27PM UTC
Severe thunderstorms to hit NSW, Qld today
Thunderstorms will develop over a broad area of NSW and Qld on Thursday afternoon, with severe storms likely in some areas. Thursday’s storms will be triggered by a low pressure trough interacting with an unstable atmosphere and moisture over eastern Australia. An upper-level trough above eastern Australia will also enhance wind shear in some areas, which is the change in wind speed and direction with height. These ingredients will produce copious lightning and elevate the risk of damaging winds and large hail for some areas. Image: Forecast precipitable water and mean sea level pressure over eastern Australia on Thursday evening, showing a low pressure trough interacting with abundant atmospheric moisture. In NSW, thunderstorms are most likely to occur from the Hunter up to the Northern Rivers and inland to the North West Slopes and Plains. While severe storms are possible throughout northeast NSW on Thursday, they are most likely near the coast and ranges to the north of Port Macquarie. In Qld, thunderstorms are likely to develop over the central and southeast inland during Thursday, extending from the Wide Bay and Burnett district up through the Central Highlands and Coalfields district and surrounding areas. Rain and a few storms will then spread towards the coast into the evening. The map below shows the forecast accumulated rainfall for the 36 hours ending at 11am AEDT on Friday, giving an indication of where the rain and storms will occur on Thursday afternoon and night. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the 36 hours ending at 11am AEDT on Friday, October 25, according to the ECMWF model. Any thunderstorms that develop over eastern Australia will be dangerous because they produce lightning. However, thunderstorms are only considered severe in Australia when they produce at least one of the following: large hail – 2 cm in diameter or larger damaging wind gusts – 90 km/h or greater tornadoes heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding A severe thunderstorm warning will be issued if an active thunderstorm is expected to produce any of the above phenomena. Be sure to check the latest warnings throughout the afternoon for the most up-to-date information.
23 Oct 2024, 2:06AM UTC
6000-km cloudband from the Kimberley to NZ
A northwest cloudband is streaming across Australia this Wednesday like a giant sash, extending from tropical northwest WA to the frigid Southern Ocean southwest of New Zealand. While the cloudband makes for a dramatic satellite image, there’s not actually a whole lot of rain associated with this particular broad-scale meteorological feature. What is a northwest cloudband? Northwest cloudbands are vast layers of cloud that flow over Australia from (you guessed it!) the northwest Once fully developed, they stretch across the country and often well into the Tasman Sea and beyond. Northwest cloudbands form when humid and warm tropical air over the Indian Ocean moves towards the southeast. As this warm and humid air moves further south, it rises over cooler air in the mid-latitudes and produces clouds. But not all northwest cloudbands are the same. Some produce a lot of rain, others not so much or barely any at all. This Wednesday’s northwest cloudband is one of the mostly dry ones. If you add radar imagery to the raw satellite image, the green blobs of precipitation are few and far between. Overnight, parts of WA, SA Victoria and southwest NSW received a sprinkle from the cloudband but no weather station registered more than a few millimetres. It's expected to be a similar story today, with only light falls in the areas where the cloudband is passing overhead. Image: The areas where precipitation is possible on Wednesday closely resemble the shape of the cloudband, though falls are expected to be light (indicated by the blue colour meaning 10mm or less). Why so dry? The reason this particular northwest cloudband isn't causing much rain is that the cloud is located in the mid to high levels of the atmosphere. This means it doesn't contain as much moisture as lower-level clouds. Also it’s fairly warm and dry near the surface, so some of the rain is evaporating before it hits the ground. There's a term for rain that never makes it to the ground, and that's "virga". We've written about virga before here on the Weatherzone news feed, and if you’re wondering what it looks like, here’s a picture from Canberra back in 2021. Image: Virga is quite common over Canberra in summer when storms form near the mountains but the rain evaporates quickly in much hotter air above the city’s outer western suburbs. Source: Tim the Yowie Man.
23 Oct 2024, 1:15AM UTC
Hector the Convector – the world's most reliable cloud
Australia has a storm cloud that develops at roughly the same time every day for months on end and its name is Hector. Described by some as the world’s most consistent thunderstorm, Hector the Convector is a convective cloud that forms over the Tiwi Islands in northern Australia. Hector is incredibly punctual and dependable, developing at around 3pm almost every day during northern Australia’s wet season, which runs from about October to April. Hector is a huge storm, sometimes reaching 20 km into the sky. It often features a large anvil-shaped cap due to the top of the cloud being forced to spread out as it bumps into the base of the stratosphere. Image: Hector the Convector seen from Nightcliff Jetty in December 2010. Source: @weather_watcher_australia / Instagram How does Hector form? Thunderstorm clouds form when warm and moisture-laden air is forced to rise into higher levels of the atmosphere. This ascending air cools as it gets higher, which causes water vapour in the air to condense into liquid drops, producing cloud. The longer this updraft of air is maintained, the larger the storm cloud can grow. Hector forms when sea breezes flow over the Tiwi Islands from all directions and clash in the elevated interior of the islands. These converging sea breezes force the air to rise, creating a column of warm and moist air that produces a towering cumulonimbus cloud. Image: Satellite images showing Hector forming on Tuesday, October 22, 2024. While the Tiwi Islands are not very high, their pyramid-like shape helps to push the air upwards as the sea breezes flow over the islands. How can you see Hector? Hector the Convector can be seen from Darwin and nearby areas of the western Top End in the NT. Looking north from the mainland, the cloud will appear in the afternoon and usually stays visible into the evening, sometimes putting on a vivid display of lightning at dusk. Passengers on afternoon flights operating out of Darwin Airport can also see Hector when conditions are favourable. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, Hector was named by pilots during World War 2 who used it for navigation when flying near the Top End.
Weather in Business
28 Aug 2024, 3:51AM UTC
Gales and crosswinds cause disruptions at Sydney Airport
Gale force west to northwesterly winds are creating havoc at Sydney airport on Wednesday afternoon, with all six landing and takeoff options impacted by very strong cross winds. Sydney airport saw gale force west to northwesterly mean wind speeds of 65km/h at 12:30pm, while the site has been gusting up to 82km/h. These winds are too strong for all three runways (six landing and takeoff options) to be used safely, airport traffic typically peaks during light winds. The image below shows that two of Sydney Airport’s parallel runways are orientated from north to south, and one single runway runs from west to east. Image: Sydney Airport runway orientation showing two parallel runways running north/south and one west/east, Source: Sydney Airport The west-east runway is the longest and can accept the largest aircraft, the A380. The gale force west to northwesterly winds on Wednesday are causing around 25 knots of crosswind on each of the six runway options. Image: Weatherzone’s cross wind calculator in our Aviation Dashboard showing cross wind or X wind of 24 to 25 knots. The term ‘crosswinds’ refers to winds that blow perpendicular to the runway, which can generate a significant lateral force on the aircraft, making it difficult for pilots to maintain a stable trajectory. The strong crosswinds can cause the plane to drift off course, posing a serious risk to both the aircraft and its passengers. Sydney Airport typically changes runways when there’s sustained crosswind gusts above 20 knots (37km/h). However, on Wednesday crosswinds are affecting all runways, meaning that aircraft are often opting to use the two north-south runways to increase traffic. This has meant that some flights have tried twice to land in these difficult conditions. It is very rare for crosswinds to impact all runways and therefore this event is causing significant disruptions at the airport on Wednesday. This event is not isolated to the Sydney area, numerous severe weather warnings for gales and damaging and/or destructive winds are in place across four states and the ACT, as a strong cold front lashes Tasmania and southeastern parts of the continent. So when will these winds die down? Conditions will ease somewhat by Wednesday evening, but not before the Sydney airport peak hour between 5 and 7pm. Winds will intensify again on Friday and into the weekend as further fronts whip through southern parts of the country.
23 Aug 2024, 5:01AM UTC
A great week for Tassie Hydro
Hundreds of millimetres of rainfall are forecast for western Tasmania in the next week, which will help replenish hydroelectric lakes in the region after some of the lowest rainfall on record. Hydropower is Tasmania’s main source of electricity, with frequent rain filling Tassie Hydro’s 54 major dams and feeding into 30 hydropower stations. In fact, during winter, the state usually exports electricity to Victoria, via the underwater Basslink. In summer, when it is usually drier, the state relies on the National Electricity Market (NEM) for a top up of power. Image: Hydroelectricity dam at Strathgordon in Tasmania According to Hydro Tasmania, they produce around 9000 gigawatts of clean renewable electricity from hydropower, enough to power 900,000 homes or businesses. The map below shows the catchments and power stations scattered across Tasmania; the largest lakes used for hydro are the Great Lake and Gordon-Pedder. The rain that falls in these catchments or dams is collected and used to generate electricity. Image: Hydro catchment areas. Source: Hydro Tasmania Usually, the west coast of Tasmania is the wettest due to prevailing westerly winds from cold fronts passing over the state, which tend to be blocked by vast mountains through central areas. During the past three months, unfortunately, this has not been the case for the west coast. Overall, the area has seen below average rain, reaching record lows in the far northwest, while the east coast saw average to above average rain. Image: Tasmania rain deciles between May 1 and July 31, 2024. Source: Bureau of Meteorology During July 2024, rain in western and central Tasmania was in the lowest 10% of Julys since 1900. The below average rain has affected water storage across western Tasmania, with some areas seeing record low or very much below average streamflow. The Great Lake was only 25.1% full by the end of July, which is a 10.4% decrease from the same time last year. Image: Streamflow decile categories for July 2024. Source: BOM The good news is that rain is on its way, with a complex low pressure system set to direct several cold fronts across the state in the coming week. Western Tasmania is forecast to see around 100 to 200mm of rain in the next 7 days, which could help fill up the western lakes, including the Gordon-Pedder. Eastern Tasmania, however, will see slightly less rain, with widespread falls of 30 to 50mm and isolated falls of 60 to 80mm. Image: Accumulated rain forecast for the next 7 days leading up to 10pm AEST on Thursday, August 29. Some of these totals will fall as snow as a cold airmass moves over the state from mid to late next week. Looking ahead, the rain should continue next Friday, August 30, and into the weekend as the low continues to linger over the region.
