09/08/2010: Central Victoria, including Melbourne is the target of heavy rain this week, most likely the heaviest this winter, according to weatherzone.com.au.

"There's an increasingly high chance that rain arriving in the middle of this week will bring in excess of 50 millimetres to the area, leading to flash flooding," said weatherzone meteorologist Brett Dutschke.

"The potential is there for much of the region to see their heaviest rain since March, some may gain their heaviest this year."

Melbourne and the surrounding area have had a drier than normal winter, in fact since early March, rainfall has been significantly below average. July turned out to be the driest in five years, largely due to a lack of powerful cold fronts reaching southeastern Australia, the type that bring decent snow to the Alpine areas.

"This coming rain will be brought about by a developing low pressure system, which will draw moisture from the north into a pool of cold air from the south. The low will also generate very strong winds, possibly strong enough to bring down trees," said Dutschke

"The wettest and windiest period will be from Wednesday morning to Thursday afternoon, before easing rapidly during Thursday night and Friday as the low crosses the Tasman."

"This doesn't mean the weekend will turn out to be sunny and calm. There will only be a brief lull before cloud and wind increase on Saturday and showers redevelop."

Melbourne's catchment should do well out of these two rain-systems. Recent moderate rain events have dampened the catchment, improving its ability to harvest the coming rain. The overall level is only at about 36.5% capacity, but there's a chance of it reaching its highest level since 2007, about 40%.

As far as the Alpine area goes, 30 to 50 centimetres of fresh snow is possible by next Monday.

Media Inquiries:

Brett Dutschke
media@weatherzone.com.au
02 9965 9236

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