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Interior 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
25
26
27
28
med
29
30
May 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
med
12
low
13
14
15
16
low
17
low
18
19
low
20
low
21
low
22
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 1 May to 5 May, 14 May to 18 May, and 19 May to 23 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 15 May to 19 May, and 24 May to 28 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 April to 3 May, 14 May to 18 May, and 20 May to 24 May.

Issued Apr 24

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Average rainfall predicted for Tasmanian winter

ABC image 21:33 EST The weather bureau says there is no indication of above or below average rainfall for Tasmania for the period from May to July.

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