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Showers on NSW's south & central coasts are easing as winds turn from humid, unstable easterly to more stable southerly. A front is bringing strong winds & showers to TAS & cool winds & isolated showers to southern SA & SW VIC. Isolated showers & storms in WA's west in a trough.
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Today, 1:24AM UTC
Relief ahead for drenched NSW coast
The end is in sight to the relentless soaking on parts of the New South Wales coast, with a period of much drier weather ahead. This will come as exceptionally good news for anyone whose washing has been accumulating in great piles in homes across Sydney as well as coastal areas within a few hours of the city – and especially the South Coast. To 9 am Monday, Sydney has seen 13 straight days with 3 mm of rainfall or more, for a running total of 212.8 mm for May 2024. That's not a record rainy streak, but it's close. The Sydney average for the whole of May is 117.3 mm in records going back to 1859. Sydney has also experienced exceptionally low average sunshine hours in May 2024 to date, with an average of just 2.5 hours per day – compared to the long-term daily average of 5.9 hours for May. Image: Kiama is finally seeing a little sun again after rain every day in May so far. Source: iStock. Numerous locations further south have seen considerably more rain than Sydney, including: Point Perpendicular (at the northern entry to Jervis Bay, about three hours south of Sydney) which had received 392.6 mm to 9 am Sunday, with Monday's update still to be confirmed after yet more heavy overnight rain Kiama (just under two hours south of Sydney) with 366.8 mm to 9 am Monday Moruya (four hours south of Sydney) with 246.8 mm to 9 am Monday But as mentioned, the pattern is finally changing, with the low pressure system sitting off the coast near Sydney making its way out into the Tasman Sea. Further south, a cold front will impact Tasmania throughout Monday – bringing rain to the state's west coast and potential showers elsewhere – but the front will have little effect on mainland weather. While Melbourne will see a brief drop in daytime temps on Tuesday with cooler mornings on Wednesday and Thursday, conditions in NSW will remain relatively mild for mid-May The broad ridge of high pressure set to establish itself across southern Australia will put an end to the persistent easterlies which have funnelled moisture onshore for most of May – although the position of the high will increase the chance of showers for the Qld coast from midweek.
12 May 2024, 1:54AM UTC
Aurora Australis lights up Australia
Images: Aurora Australis viewed from Launceston at about 5am Sat 11th. Photos taken by Quincy Tut Avid skywatchers around most of the world have been captivated by the magnificent display of the aurora borealis/australis, commonly known as the northern/southern lights, in recent nights. Amid the strongest geomagnetic storm in years, these lights, typically only seen in polar latitudes, have been observed in the tropical latitudes, encompassing most of Australia! The aurora lights are generated when solar flares erupting from the sun emit massive amounts of electrons into the solar system. When these electrons reach earth, they interact with our planet’s magnetic field and are driven towards the magnetic poles. When colliding with the gaseous ions in the upper atmosphere, these particles generate the displays of light that we ultimately see as the southern lights. The southern lights typically occur between 50 and 800km above the surface, which means they can sometimes be seen from thousands of kilometers away from where they are. Image: Probability of Aurora over the southern hemisphere at about 12am Sunday morning AEST. The aurora can still be seen from hundreds of kms away from where it is due to the height it occurs at. Source: NOAA While the southern lights are one of the most spectacular phenomena in the natural world, the geomagnetic storms associated with them can leave negative impacts. These impacts include disruptions to satellites, GPS systems, and electricity infrastructure which can lead to blackouts. Of course, to observe the southern lights, clear skies and minimal light pollution is essential, and for most of the country, the weather has co operated to give many what could be a once in a lifetime experience. Last night, the aurora australis was observed from Tasmania, through Victoria, South Australia and southern and western WA, and parts of NSW and Queensland as far north as Townsville – just 19° south of the equator! Unfortunately, thick cloud over central and southeast NSW and the ACT, including Sydney and Canberra, prevented many from viewing the spectacular light show last night, as eastern NSW continues to be soaked by a trough that continues to send rain over the region today. GIF: Himawari enhanced infrared satellite imagery overnight Saturday into Sunday morning showing the aurora blockers (cloud cover) over southeast NSW and eastern Vic In good news for anyone who still wants to get a look at the southern lights, a moderate geomagnetic storm is forecast to impact the planet in the next 24 hours, leading to at least one more night of increased aurora activity for the southern half of the country. Image: forecast cloud cover over Sydney and southeast NSW, including the ACT at 12am Monday morning using ACCESS-C Syd Unfortunately for much of Tas and southwest WA, cloud cover will likely block much of the view tonight as a front impacts the southeast and a trough encroaches the southwest. For Sydney, southeast NSW and the ACT, the trough should start to move away this afternoon, and while skies won’t be entirely cloud free, there is a good chance of at least some patches of clear sky. This means that if you’re looking to the south, you may just be lucky enough to see the aurora australis.
11 May 2024, 6:30AM UTC
GWM Sydney Surf Pro forecast
After an entertaining first 3 days of competition at Narrabeen Beach, what does the rest of the competition period look like for the Sydney Surf Pro. Sunday will see similar conditions and surf to today, not perfect nor pretty but good sized surf for the competitors, and cloudy skies and showers for spectators. So, if you want to come down to the beach and see some of the competition, pack an umbrella and rain layer! Monday could be the first day the competition organisers decide to hold off and take a lay day as a strengthening southerly wind moves into the exposed North Narrabeen beach section, creating some ugly ocean surfaces. However, early southwesterly winds in the morning could provide a window of opportunity for competitors to show off before the arrival of the wind. Monday’s southwest, tending southerly winds will help clear out showers during the day, leading to a finer and drier period of days into the working week. Weather forecast for Narrabeen over the next week, with rain and showers over the coming days becoming less of a chance over the mid-week period. As Tuesday and Wednesday come around, we should see much drier periods across Sydney, along with cleaner surf likely to make for a couple good days of competition, especially in the morning offshore winds. The surf size will be down a touch or two from this weekend, but the conditions will make up for this (both for the competitors, and the spectators with less chance of showers). Image: a radiant autumn morning at North Narrabeen during the 2021 competition. Organisers will be desperate to finish the competition before the final day of the contest period on Thursday, with the various swell in the water easing and the surf likely to be too small and unworthy of competition.
Weather in Business
07 May 2024, 11:23PM UTC
How severe thunderstorms impact energy infrastructure
Earlier this year destructive thunderstorms and winds equivalent to a category two cyclone lashed Victoria, bending towers and toppling trees and poles. So, how can thunderstorms damage energy infrastructure, and are these events getting worse? This event occurred during mid-February 2024, when a strong cold front generated severe thunderstorms and localised wind gusts of 130km/h after a prolonged period of extreme heat. The image below shows a squall line around 1,500km long causing lightning across four states in February. Image: Himawari-9 satellite image, lightning and radar on Tuesday, February 13 at 3pm AEDT. The destructive winds were caused by microbursts, which bent towers and toppled trees and poles in Vic, leaving thousands without power. Image: Damaged transmission towers at Anakie, Source: AAP Microbursts are a localised column of sinking air (downdraft) within a thunderstorm and is usually less than 4km wide. The cold, heavy air within this downdraft descends rapidly to the surface and then spreads out in all directions as it hits the ground. The image below shows how wind gusts are produced in thunderstorms. Microbursts can be destructive and cause wind gusts above 100 km/h, which can be a risk for power infrastructure. The force applied to the structure is roughly proportional to the speed squared. Fierce wind gusts from thunderstorms can: Knock down trees, which can fall onto power lines Topple poles Knock out transmission towers. Microbursts typically occur during the warmer months of the year and, unfortunately, they can develop rapidly and last for only a short period of time, making them difficult to predict and warn communities about. Have these thunderstorm events become more severe in Victoria? The severe thunderstorm season across southern Australia occurs during the warmer months of the year, between November and April. While thunderstorms are more common across northern Australia, Qld, and NSW, they do occur frequently in the summer months. The map below shows the annual average lightning density in Vic between July 2014 and June 2023, with the most lightning occurring in the northeast high country each year. Image: Weatherzone’s Total Lightning Network Annual lightning density mean between July 2014 and June 2023. You can see in the map above that lightning is common to the north of Ballarat near Learmonth and Miners Rest, with the region seeing 37.7 pulses per year. The high country near Benalla and Whitfield recorded an average of 28.1 pulses, Thorpdale in Gippsland saw 24.5 pulses, and Melbourne only 8.2 pulses per year. Research has shown that the warming climate is increasing the risk of heatwaves and bushfires, which can impact energy infrastructure. Unfortunately, it is unknown how global warming will affect thunderstorms and their associated destructive winds. To research climate change's impact on thunderstorms, we would need quality data that dates back well into history. Unfortunately, detecting lightning is a fairly new phenomena, so a solid climate base to compare data to is not currently existent. According to the University of Melbourne researchers and Watt Clarity, ‘The evidence we do have suggests continued climate change may potentially increase the risk of extreme winds from thunderstorms. This is partly due to more moist and unstable air, which are essential for thunderstorms to form. We think these conditions could occur more often with climate change, in part because warmer air can hold more moisture.’ Indeed, much of Australia had an unusually stormy summer 2023/24, with Melbourne, Canberra and Brisbane all seeing 5 to 6 extra storm days a season. The map below shows that an unusually high number of thunder days were seen over most of Qld, NSW, SA, Vic, the ACT and Tas during the summer of 2023/24 compared to the average of the most recent nine years. Image: Thunder day anomalies for summer 2023-24 versus the average thunder days for the nation’s nine most recent summers (2014/15 to 2022/23).
23 Apr 2024, 12:07AM UTC
Wind returning to southeastern Australia
After a prolonged period of light winds, a surge of powerful winds and cool air will push through southeastern Australia during the next 48 hours. As we wrote about last week the National Electricity Market (NEM) saw very low wind power generation during the seven days leading up to Thursday, April 18, with the daily wind generation having been under 41 GWh/day for this period. Wind power has improved slightly during the past week, with wind power increasing for a few days over last weekend. The chart below shows that the winds across the NEM have already increased in response to a cold front approaching SA and Vic on Tuesday. The increase in wind power is associated with a cold front sweeping across southeastern Australia, after a stubborn high-pressure system forced many cold fronts south for over a week. The map below shows the cold front marching across the Bight, approaching SA on Tuesday morning. You can also see a broad area of speckled cloud in the Bight, which is a tell-tale sign that a large mass of cold polar air has broken away from the Antarctic region and is venturing into the relatively warm mid-latitudes. Image: Himawari-9 satellite image at 9:30am AEST on Tuesday, April 23. Northwesterly winds will continue to strengthen ahead of the cold front on Tuesday in SA and Vic before a strong southwesterly change hits Adelaide on Tuesday afternoon and Melbourne in the evening. The images below show the wind gust forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Image: Instantaneous wind gust forecast at 1pm AEST on Tuesday (top) (bottom)and Wednesday, April 23 and 24, according to ECMWF While most of this wind should hit the wind power ‘sweet spot’, cut outs could occur at southeastern Vic and southern NSW wind farms late Tuesday into Wednesday. Generally, cut outs occur when wind speeds exceed 90km/h (25 m/s), which is when the wind turbines are turned off to prevent damage. In the image above you can see the front and associated southerly change moving up the NSW coast on Wednesday, hitting Sydney on Wednesday afternoon. Winds will then become light later this week as another high-pressure system moves into the Bight. Cool change coming Ahead of this change, much of southeastern Australia has experienced pleasant autumnal weather, with Sydney’s temperature for the next two days reaching 27°C. However, there will be a large temperature contrast ahead and behind the cold front in the next few days. The image below shows forecast air temperatures around 1.5km above sea level on Wednesday morning, showing the cool airmass moving over parts of SA, VIC, Tas. Behind the cold front strong southwesterly winds will cause temperatures to plummet to around 2-3°C below average across southern Australia; Melbourne and Adelaide's temperature dropping to around 16-18°C for several days following the front. Hobart’s temperature will drop from 22°C on Tuesday to 15°C on Wednesday. Sydney’s temperature will go from 5°C above average on Wednesday to average on Thursday. The coolest air will move over Tas, bringing snow to the alpine region there. Looking ahead, temperatures will recover later this week ahead of another cold front and burst of wind power early next week.
