Parts of the Kimberley have already seen over half their average October rainfall, signalling the build-up to northern Australia's wet season.
October represents the transition between the region's dry and wet seasons. Kununurra's average monthly rainfall jumps from 3mm during September to 62mm in November. Over the border, Darwin goes from just 16mm to 140mm.
Increasingly warm waters off northern Australia increases the amount of moisture available in the atmosphere, while rising temperatures over the land trigger convection. This recipe leads to more frequent and more intense showers and thunderstorms.
Showers and storms on the first day of October have signalled the start of this year's wet season build-up. During the 24 hours to 9am this morning, Mount House Airstrip recorded 36mm of rain. Mount Elizabeth received 22mm, which is 70 percent of the usual October rainfall.
The trough weakened over northern WA this morning and moved offshore, allowing showers and storms to clear the Kimberley. Looking ahead, dry weather is expected to persist for the region until at least Sunday.
The remainder of this year, which includes the first two months of the wet season, is expected to experience close to average rainfall across northern Australia.
© Weatherzone 2012
16:06 EST The weather bureau has implemented a new system of forecasting the seasonal outlook called Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia, or POAMA.