Between now and the long weekend much of Victoria will heat up by 10-to-15 degrees and then stay about 10 degrees hotter than average for several days, breaking early-season heat records. Heating to 10 degrees above average is not unusual for this time of year but staying that hot for four days and nights is unusual and will be a shock to some. It is effectively an early spring heat wave. Each day from Saturday to Tuesday should heat up to the mid-to-high thirties in the Mallee, low-to-mid thirties in the Wimmera and Northern Country and near 30 degrees in most other areas, including Melbourne. This sort of heat typically does not develop until at least late October. Mildura will average a maximum of about 37 degrees over the four days, 14 degrees above the early October average. This will also be four degrees hotter than the previous record for this early in the season, set in 1987 (records go back more than 100 years). Melbourne is also on target for its warmest spell this early in the season in over 100 years, averaging about 29 degrees over five days. The last time the city averaged a maximum of more than 28 degrees over five days this early in the season was in 1914. In that year the city averaged 28.1 degrees from 2nd October to 6th October. This hot spell is developing as a result of winds turning northerly, dragging heat from northwestern Australia where sunnier-than-normal days have led to a hotter-than-average start to spring. The northerlies will also be dry and gusty, combining with the heat, leading to a few days of elevated fire danger, particularly Monday and Tuesday. However, for many people this heat could not have come at a better time, coinciding with a long weekend and the AFL Grand Final. This year's grand final will be the warmest AFL/VFL Grand Final in 28 years. In 1987, a Grand Final record 30.7 degrees was too much for Hawthorn, succumbing to Carlton. If this year's Grand Final was being played in its traditional last-Saturday-in-September slot it would have been more than 10 degrees colder. It only reached 18 degrees last Saturday.