There is a high chance of a tropical cyclone forming near Papua New Guinea in the next 24-36 hours, based on the latest observations and weather models.

The system is forecast to move to the south and west, nearing the Cape York Peninsula. Conditions in the atmosphere and ocean are favourable for the system to significantly increase in intensity.

Models begin to disagree on the track of the system from about Wednesday. There are two most likely scenarios at this stage:

1. The system traverses west across the Cape York Peninsula, where it may temporarily weaken as it moves overland, before gaining strength again as it enters the warmer waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria;

2. The system hugs the east coast of Far North Queensland as it moves south, before moving inland near the base of the Cape York Peninsula.

Tropical cyclones are notoriously difficult to predict, hence the expected evolution of this system is likely to change in the coming days. Keep up to date with the latest forecast on the BoM's website - http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/index.shtml