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Ranges dividing rainfall in NSW

Ben Domensino, Thursday February 21, 2019 - 13:51 EDT

Eastern NSW will experience rain each day during the next week, although the state's parched west looks to miss out once again.

A slow-moving high pressure system located over the Great Australian Bight will pass over Tasmania this weekend and move into the Tasman Sea next week.

The passage of this large high will maintain a flow of easterly winds across NSW throughout most of the next week.

These moisture-laden winds will produce daily showers in eastern NSW, with locally heavy falls possible at times, particularly in the state's northeast.

Unfortunately, little if any of this rain will make it very far over the Great Dividing Range and into parched soils across the Murray Darling Basin.

The easterly component winds will also help keep hot air away from NSW during the next week, preventing heatwaves and limiting bushfire weather across the state.

Looking ahead, there are no strong signs of above or below average seasonal rainfall in NSW during autumn, according to the BoM. This means there are roughly equal chances of a wet and dry season ahead for most of the state.

However, there are ongoing indications that an El Nino may be developing in the Pacific Ocean.

Last week, America's national weather agency issued an advisory stating that El Nino is underway. However, the Australian Bureau uses different thresholds to define El Nino events and gives a 50 per cent chance of El Nino developing during the coming months.

While this conflicting information may be confusing, the important thing to take away is that the Pacific Ocean is showing signs of an El Nino pattern. If this persists through autumn, it may influence rainfall in eastern Australia.  

El Nino events often cause below average rainfall in southern and eastern Australia during autumn and winter.

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