An active monsoon will bring an increased risk of cyclone activity to the country's northwest over the coming two weeks. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is characterised by an eastward moving pulse of cloud and rain near the equator that typically recurs every one to two months (Bureau of Meteorology). The MJO is currently located in the far eastern Indian Ocean. With the MJO approaching the Australian region and a developing monsoon, the risk of cyclone activity and above average rainfall will increase over northern Australia over the next two weeks (BoM). There is the potential for two low pressure systems to intensify into tropical cyclones to the south of Indonesia over the coming week. A low pressure system over the Indian Ocean well to the west of the Pilbara coast, is rated as a high chance of intensifying into a tropical cyclone on Thursday. A second low is located closer to the coastline and is currently rated at a moderate risk (20-50% chance) of intensifying into a cyclone on Friday, with the risk likely to increase further over the weekend. Models currently indicate that these systems will keep the heaviest rain and strongest winds off the coast in the coming week. However, there is a good chance that the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts will receive areas of heavy rain and strong winds from the weekend. Keep checking weatherzone.com.au for the latest warnings and updates.