Weather News

Australia on El Nino Watch

Ben Domensino, Tuesday June 19, 2018 - 16:20 EST

The chance of an El Nino forming during the second half of 2018 is increasing as the equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to warm.

The Bureau of Meteorology monitors oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Pacific Ocean and issues fortnightly statements regarding the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. This cycle has three phases: Neutral, El Nino and La Nina.

The Pacific Ocean is currently in a neutral phase, although sea surface temperatures near the equator have warmed in recent weeks. This warming has started to extend below the surface, which can indicate the early stages of El Nino.

In their latest fortnightly ENSO statement, which was released on Tuesday, the Bureau increased the chance of El Nino developing later in the year to 50 per cent.

Neural ENSO conditions - neither El Nino or La Nina - are expected to persist in the Pacific Ocean during the rest of winter. However, five of the eight climate models surveyed by the Bureau now predict that El Nino thresholds could be exceeded during the Australian spring.

El Nino events can cause below average rainfall across parts of northern and eastern Australia during winter and spring, although they tend to have less of an influence on rainfall during summer. An El Nino even starting during spring is a bit later that usual, as they typically start and end in autumn.

Visit for the latest information on ENSO from the Bureau of Meteorology.

More breaking news

Sydney Morning Herald
ABC News
National Nine News
News Limited

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Northern Territory's Barkly region braces for Tropical Cyclone Trevor deluge

21:21 EDT

Skies were turning grey at Laura Farmer's place on Saturday afternoon, and in her line of work that's worth a photo.

Port Hedland could be in the eye of Cyclone Veronica for up to eight hours, authorities warn

20:59 EDT

Residents are being urged to brace for torrential rain, a damaging storm surge and destructive winds for 12 hours or more as Cyclone Veronica gains strength and edges slowly towards to the Pilbara coastline.

Cyclone Trevor's destructive eye slams Northern Territory coastline with 250kph winds

20:57 EDT

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor, a weather system almost the size of New South Wales, is expected to pummel parched inland regions with heavy rainfall tomorrow after slamming into the Northern Territory coast with wind gusts up to 250 kilometres per hour this morning.