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Home › 28-day Rainfall Forecast › Perth Rainfall Forecast

Perth 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
20
med
21
22
23
24
25
low
26
low
27
low
28
high
29
med
30
31
Jun 1
2
3
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
med
8
low
9
med
10
med
11
med
12
low
13
med
14
high
15
med
16
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%		 low
25% to 50%		 med
50% to 75%		 high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 1 June to 5 June, 5 June to 9 June, and 15 June to 19 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 May to 1 June, and 13 June to 17 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 June to 5 June, 5 June to 9 June, and 13 June to 17 June.

Issued May 18

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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