Perth 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 January to 2 February, 5 February to 9 February, and 16 February to 20 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 January to 1 February, and 21 February to 25 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 16 February to 20 February, and 20 February to 24 February.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
Radio transmitters have been inserted into the stomachs of 24 feedlot cattle to monitor their body temperatures, as part of a three-month trial investigating the impact of heatwaves.
People in Darwin and other parts of the Top End may be about to get relief from recent hot weather, with the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) predicting a monsoon trough will start to effect the area within days.
Residents have described chaotic scenes in the streets of Mudgee as the town was battered by damaging winds today.