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W & S Gippsland 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
25
26
27
low
28
low
29
high
30
med
31
high
Jun 1
low
2
low
3
4
low
5
high
6
low
7
low
8
low
9
high
10
med
11
med
12
low
13
low
14
low
15
16
low
17
med
18
low
19
med
20
low
21
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 June to 10 June, 13 June to 17 June, and 23 June to 27 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18 June to 22 June, and 25 June to 29 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 May to 2 June, 6 June to 10 June, and 14 June to 18 June.

Issued May 24

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

Wild night in the west

16:47 EST

Perth's run of warm and dry weather will come to an abrupt end tonight when one of Western Australia's strongest cold front so far this year reaches the state's west coast.

Severe weather warning issued as destructive cold front approaches southern WA

16:25 EST

The southern half of Western Australia is set to be hit by a strong cold front later today, bringing dangerous wind gusts of up to 125 kilometres per hour along with heavy rainfall.

Sydney's dry spell continues

14:12 EST

Sydney just had one of its driest June to May periods on record.