Fairfax Media Network

W & S Gippsland 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
19
high
20
high
21
22
23
high
24
high
25
med
26
low
27
low
28
29
med
30
low
31
low
Feb 1
2
3
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
8
9
low
10
11
low
12
13
14
low
15
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 9 February to 13 February, and 14 February to 18 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 January to 25 January, and 18 February to 22 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 January to 3 February, 9 February to 13 February, and 15 February to 19 February.

Issued Jan 17

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Water sports ramp up on Central Australian cattle station after heavy rainfall

10:19 EDT

Being able to enjoy water sports on an outback cattle station is not something that happens very often, especially in the desert.

Queensland weather: Heatwave conditions to hit state's south over next four days

10:11 EDT

Heatwave conditions are set to scorch southern Queensland today for a second time in just over a week, with paramedics preparing for another spike in heat-related cases.

Boulia shire enjoys a long-awaited start to wet season

09:30 EDT

The Queensland channel country town of Boulia enjoyed some good rain at last in 2016 with the Bureau of Meteorology recording five times the 2015 rainfall.