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W & S Gippsland 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
20
high
21
22
low
23
med
24
low
25
med
26
low
27
28
low
29
med
30
med
31
low
Nov 1
med
2
low
3
med
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
med
8
low
9
low
10
med
11
12
low
13
med
14
med
15
low
16
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 October to 29 October, 31 October to 4 November, and 11 November to 15 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 October to 4 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 October to 27 October, 31 October to 4 November, and 11 November to 15 November.

Issued Oct 18

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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