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Northern Country 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
29
30
high
31
med
Aug 1
med
2
high
3
med
4
med
5
low
6
7
low
8
9
med
10
med
11
low
12
13
med
14
15
med
16
low
17
med
18
19
low
20
low
21
22
med
23
med
24
med
25
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 August to 11 August, 11 August to 15 August, and 22 August to 26 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18 August to 22 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 August to 6 August, 11 August to 15 August, and 22 August to 26 August.

Issued Jul 28

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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