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Northern Country 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
25
26
27
28
Mar 1
2
low
3
4
5
6
low
7
8
low
9
low
10
11
low
12
low
13
low
14
15
16
17
low
18
low
19
20
21
med
22
med
23
24
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 March to 14 March, 19 March to 23 March, and 26 March to 30 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 March to 6 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 4 March to 8 March, 12 March to 16 March, and 19 March to 23 March.

Issued Feb 24

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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