|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 December to 26 December, 6 January to 10 January, and 19 January to 23 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 1 January to 5 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 December to 26 December, 6 January to 10 January, and 19 January to 23 January.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
22:50 EDT The weather bureau has cancelled a very dangerous storm warning for the Sunshine Coast in south-east Queensland after the storm moved across Fraser Island and headed out to sea.