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North East 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Aug 1
high
2
high
3
high
4
med
5
high
6
high
7
high
8
med
9
10
low
11
med
12
high
13
med
14
med
15
med
16
med
17
low
18
high
19
med
20
med
21
high
22
high
23
med
24
low
25
low
26
27
low
28
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 August to 13 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 1 September to 5 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 19 August to 23 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 August to 13 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 1 September to 5 September.

Issued Jul 31

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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