Fairfax Media Network

North Central 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
29
med
30
med
31
Apr 1
low
2
low
3
low
4
5
6
7
8
9
med
10
med
11
12
13
14
15
16
low
17
med
18
19
20
21
low
22
low
23
med
24
med
25
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, and the south Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 April to 18 April, 20 April to 24 April, and 28 April to 2 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 March to 29 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 April to 11 April, 20 April to 24 April, and 28 April to 2 May.

Issued Mar 27

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Cyclone Debbie reaches category four, thousands in low-lying Mackay areas told to leave

03:31 EDT

Tropical Cyclone Debbie has intensified to category four and is expected to hit the north Queensland coast on Tuesday morning, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has warned.

Navy's largest ships unable to join Cyclone Debbie emergency response amid engine troubles

02:09 EDT

Engineers are frantically working to solve engine problems on the Royal Australian Navy's two largest ships, with fears the Landing Helicopter Docks (LHDs) could be out of action for several weeks.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie: Queenslanders preparing for worst cyclone since Yasi

00:42 EDT

As Tropical Cyclone Debbie strengthens off the coast near Townsville in north Queensland, residents are being warned to prepare for the worst storm to hit the state since Cyclone Yasi in 2011.