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North Central 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
31
med
Aug 1
med
2
high
3
high
4
med
5
med
6
high
7
low
8
low
9
10
11
med
12
low
13
med
14
high
15
med
16
med
17
low
18
low
19
med
20
low
21
low
22
low
23
high
24
med
25
high
26
med
27
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 August to 13 August, 13 August to 17 August, and 30 August to 3 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 August to 29 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 August to 13 August, 23 August to 27 August, and 31 August to 4 September.

Issued Jul 29

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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