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North Central 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
6
7
med
8
high
9
low
10
11
12
13
low
14
med
15
low
16
17
low
18
low
19
low
20
21
22
23
24
25
med
26
27
low
28
low
29
low
30
low
31
low
Jan 1
low
2
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 December to 16 December, 25 December to 29 December, and 30 December to 3 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 December to 14 December, 19 December to 23 December, and 6 January to 10 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 December to 16 December, 16 December to 20 December, and 23 December to 27 December.

Issued Dec 5

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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