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North Central 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
27
med
28
med
29
30
31
high
Nov 1
med
2
low
3
low
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
med
8
low
9
low
10
11
12
13
low
14
low
15
low
16
med
17
med
18
med
19
low
20
low
21
low
22
23
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 November to 6 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 28 November to 2 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 November to 9 November, 10 November to 14 November, and 15 November to 19 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 November to 9 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 28 November to 2 December.

Issued Oct 26

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Upper Western NSW starts spring 40 degree heat

12:42 EDT Yesterday, the majority of the Upper Western district in New South Wales experienced their first 40 degree day for spring this year.

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