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Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
24
high
25
high
26
low
27
med
28
low
29
med
30
high
31
high
Aug 1
high
2
low
3
low
4
high
5
med
6
med
7
med
8
med
9
high
10
high
11
high
12
13
med
14
med
15
med
16
med
17
low
18
high
19
med
20
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 July to 3 August, 3 August to 7 August, and 9 August to 13 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 August to 15 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 July to 3 August, 10 August to 14 August, and 19 August to 23 August.

Issued Jul 22

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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