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Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
23
med
24
med
25
low
26
med
27
low
28
low
29
30
low
31
low
Aug 1
2
low
3
low
4
low
5
low
6
high
7
med
8
med
9
med
10
med
11
med
12
low
13
low
14
med
15
low
16
low
17
low
18
med
19
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 August to 9 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 20 August to 24 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 19 July to 23 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 4 August to 8 August, 17 August to 21 August, and 21 August to 25 August.

Issued Jul 21

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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