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Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
13
med
14
low
15
high
16
high
17
high
18
high
19
20
21
low
22
low
23
low
24
25
26
low
27
low
28
29
med
Mar 1
2
3
low
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 19 February to 23 February, 24 February to 28 February, and 10 March to 14 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 February to 21 February, 2 March to 6 March, and 8 March to 12 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 21 February to 25 February, 27 February to 2 March, and 11 March to 15 March.

Issued Feb 12

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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