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Home › 28-day Rainfall Forecast › Melbourne Rainfall Forecast

Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
22
low
23
low
24
25
low
26
med
27
med
28
med
29
med
30
med
Jul 1
2
low
3
med
4
low
5
low
6
med
7
med
8
9
low
10
low
11
med
12
low
13
low
14
low
15
med
16
high
17
med
18
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%		 low
25% to 50%		 med
50% to 75%		 high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 June to 29 June, 4 July to 8 July, and 23 July to 27 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 June to 30 June, 8 July to 12 July, and 13 July to 17 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 June to 29 June, 14 July to 18 July, and 23 July to 27 July.

Issued Jun 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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