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Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
27
high
28
med
29
30
May 1
med
2
med
3
med
4
low
5
high
6
med
7
high
8
med
9
med
10
med
11
med
12
high
13
med
14
high
15
med
16
med
17
low
18
19
20
low
21
22
low
23
med
24
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 May to 6 May, 10 May to 14 May, and 26 May to 30 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 May to 28 May, and 29 May to 2 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 4 May to 8 May, 10 May to 14 May, and 22 May to 26 May.

Issued Apr 25

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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