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Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
18
19
low
20
med
21
low
22
low
23
low
24
25
low
26
low
27
low
28
29
30
31
Feb 1
2
3
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
low
8
9
10
11
low
12
med
13
high
14
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 January to 26 January, 4 February to 8 February, and 10 February to 14 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 February to 9 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 February to 7 February, 11 February to 15 February, and 19 February to 23 February.

Issued Jan 17

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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