Fairfax Media Network

Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
29
high
30
high
Oct 1
low
2
high
3
high
4
high
5
high
6
7
8
high
9
high
10
low
11
high
12
med
13
14
med
15
high
16
high
17
med
18
low
19
low
20
21
med
22
23
med
24
med
25
low
26
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 October to 10 October, 13 October to 17 October, and 21 October to 25 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 October to 11 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 20 October to 24 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 October to 10 October, 13 October to 17 October, and 21 October to 25 October.

Issued Sep 28

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

South Australia weather: 'cyclone' expected to smash South Australia

10:41 EST

Wild weather described as a "cyclone" is expected to hit South Australia from midday, with flood watches in place across the state.

Days of dangerous weather starts today

10:40 EST

Thunderstorms are firing up in South Australia this morning at the beginning of a multi-day and multi-state severe weather event.

Victoria weather: storm system to bring heavy winds, potential flash floods

10:23 EST

Victorians are bracing for heavy rain and winds of up to 100 kilometres per hour as an intense low pressure system moves across the state from the west.