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Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
27
high
28
med
29
30
31
high
Nov 1
med
2
low
3
low
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
high
8
med
9
med
10
11
12
low
13
low
14
med
15
low
16
med
17
med
18
med
19
med
20
low
21
22
23
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 November to 9 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 27 November to 1 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 November to 6 November, 10 November to 14 November, and 27 November to 1 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 November to 6 November, 6 November to 10 November, and 20 November to 24 November.

Issued Oct 25

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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