Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
22
med
23
med
24
med
25
med
26
med
27
low
28
29
med
30
31
Apr 1
2
low
3
4
5
6
low
7
low
8
low
9
med
10
low
11
12
low
13
low
14
low
15
low
16
low
17
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 March to 28 March, 30 March to 3 April, and 16 April to 20 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 March to 28 March, and 29 March to 2 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 March to 29 March, 15 April to 19 April, and 21 April to 25 April.

Issued Mar 19

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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