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Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
27
28
high
29
med
30
med
31
low
Jun 1
low
2
3
low
4
5
low
6
high
7
high
8
med
9
low
10
high
11
low
12
med
13
med
14
med
15
high
16
med
17
med
18
high
19
med
20
med
21
low
22
low
23
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 June to 9 June, 11 June to 15 June, and 27 June to 1 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 May to 28 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 4 June to 8 June, 8 June to 12 June, and 27 June to 1 July.

Issued May 26

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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