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West & Sth Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
17
high
18
high
19
high
20
high
21
med
22
23
med
24
med
25
med
26
high
27
med
28
med
29
low
30
med
31
low
Aug 1
low
2
low
3
4
low
5
med
6
med
7
med
8
med
9
med
10
med
11
med
12
med
13
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of Western Australia, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 July to 29 July, 3 August to 7 August, and 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 July to 24 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 31 July to 4 August, 5 August to 9 August, and 10 August to 14 August.

Issued Jul 15

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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