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West & Sth Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
4
high
5
high
6
med
7
high
8
high
9
high
10
med
11
high
12
high
13
high
14
high
15
high
16
high
17
high
18
med
19
med
20
high
21
med
22
23
low
24
high
25
high
26
high
27
high
28
low
29
med
30
med
31
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 May to 20 May, 22 May to 26 May, and 31 May to 4 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 May to 12 May, and 16 May to 20 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 16 May to 20 May, 22 May to 26 May, and 31 May to 4 June.

Issued May 3

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

Victoria weather: Strong winds hit Melbourne, southern parts of state as cold front moves through

18:56 EST

A deep cold front has swept through Melbourne and parts of southern Victoria, uprooting trees and damaging buildings with wind gusts of more than 100 kilometres per hour (kph).

Dry season storm dumps heavy rain on Darwin

18:23 EST

A 90-minute downpour has seen Darwin record more than twice as much rain as usual for the entire month of May.

Wet season wraps up with below average rainfall for many Top End cattle stations

17:53 EST

Despite a promising start to the wet season, many Top End cattle stations are entering the dry season with The bulk of the season's rain came with a monsoon trough which moved over the Northern Territory in , with little follow-up rain throughout January and February.