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West & Sth Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
20
high
21
med
22
high
23
high
24
high
25
med
26
27
28
low
29
med
30
med
Oct 1
med
2
med
3
med
4
med
5
high
6
high
7
high
8
high
9
high
10
low
11
low
12
low
13
med
14
med
15
high
16
high
17
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 September to 1 October, 2 October to 6 October, and 6 October to 10 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 September to 30 September, and 21 October to 25 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 September to 29 September, 30 September to 4 October, and 7 October to 11 October.

Issued Sep 19

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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