Fairfax Media Network

West & Sth Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
14
high
15
med
16
med
17
low
18
med
19
20
high
21
high
22
high
23
med
24
med
25
low
26
27
low
28
low
29
med
30
med
Dec 1
med
2
low
3
low
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
med
11
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 November to 22 November, 7 December to 11 December, and 14 December to 18 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 November to 28 November, 29 November to 3 December, and 13 December to 17 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 19 November to 23 November, 27 November to 1 December, and 14 December to 18 December.

Issued Nov 12

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Melbourne weather: How winds from the north and west create 'change days'

06:21 EDT

Don't like the weather in Melbourne? Wait five minutes, so the saying goes.

Red Cross expands drought grants to eastern Victorian farmers

18:03 EDT

With just weeks until the end of spring, farmers in eastern Victoria have run out of time for drought-breaking rain.

Drought help through Farm Household Allowance stalled by Centrelink processes, claim farmers

17:32 EDT

The application process for a much-publicised Federal Government drought financial assistance program is being bogged down in Centrelink's service delivery, according to a farmer who has made an application.