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West & Sth Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
2
high
3
low
4
med
5
med
6
med
7
high
8
low
9
med
10
high
11
med
12
low
13
14
15
16
high
17
med
18
19
low
20
med
21
med
22
low
23
low
24
low
25
low
26
low
27
med
28
low
29
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 November to 22 November, 25 November to 29 November, and 2 December to 6 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 November to 13 November, and 24 November to 28 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 November to 12 November, 18 November to 22 November, and 2 December to 6 December.

Issued Nov 1

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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