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Northwest Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
27
28
med
29
high
30
med
31
low
Jan 1
med
2
3
low
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
low
8
9
10
11
12
13
low
14
15
16
17
18
low
19
med
20
low
21
low
22
23
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 January to 12 January, 15 January to 19 January, and 24 January to 28 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 December to 4 January, 11 January to 15 January, and 27 January to 31 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 January to 12 January, 15 January to 19 January, and 25 January to 29 January.

Issued Dec 25

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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