|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 December to 14 December, 19 December to 23 December, and 31 December to 4 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 December to 8 December, 11 December to 15 December, and 17 December to 21 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 December to 12 December, 21 December to 25 December, and 1 January to 5 January.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
16:14 EDT At least 350 SES volunteers and 100 firefighters are working in areas of Brisbane hardest hit by Thursday's super cell storm, clearing yards and parks of corrugated iron, roof tiles, broken glass and tying down tarps onto roofs.