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Central 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
6
high
7
high
8
high
9
high
10
high
11
high
12
high
13
high
14
high
15
high
16
med
17
med
18
med
19
high
20
high
21
med
22
med
23
high
24
high
25
high
26
med
27
low
28
high
29
med
30
med
31
low
Jun 1
low
2
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 11 May to 15 May, 22 May to 26 May, and 4 June to 8 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 May to 29 May, 30 May to 3 June, and 7 June to 11 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 May to 16 May, 30 May to 3 June, and 4 June to 8 June.

Issued May 5

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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