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Home › 28-day Rainfall Forecast › Central Rainfall Forecast

Central 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
22
23
med
24
med
25
low
26
med
27
med
28
low
29
high
30
high
31
med
Jun 1
med
2
low
3
med
4
5
med
6
low
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
12
13
14
high
15
med
16
low
17
high
18
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%		 low
25% to 50%		 med
50% to 75%		 high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 May to 1 June, 15 June to 19 June, and 22 June to 26 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 June to 8 June, 11 June to 15 June, and 15 June to 19 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 May to 1 June, 16 June to 20 June, and 21 June to 25 June.

Issued May 21

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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