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NW Pastoral 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
17
18
19
20
21
22
low
23
24
25
26
27
28
low
29
30
31
Sep 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 August to 30 August, 10 September to 14 September, and 18 September to 22 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 August to 31 August, and 10 September to 14 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 August to 30 August, 15 September to 19 September, and 19 September to 23 September.

Issued Aug 16

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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