NW Pastoral 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 September to 22 September, 28 September to 2 October, and 2 October to 6 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 September to 11 September, and 24 September to 28 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 September to 22 September, 22 September to 26 September, and 30 September to 4 October.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne are all set for a cold start to spring while snow could fall at Bluff Knoll in the nation's west.
Winter 2015 varied significantly across Australia, with southeastern parts of Australia shivering through their coldest winter in years, whilst western and northern parts basked in much warmer than average conditions.
Flooded dairy farmers at Berry on the New South Wales south coast are struggling to keep their cows dry and fed in the downpour.