Fairfax Media Network

NW Pastoral 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
6
low
7
med
8
low
9
10
11
12
13
14
low
15
16
low
17
low
18
low
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
low
29
low
30
low
31
Jan 1
2
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 6 January to 10 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 December to 13 December, 13 December to 17 December, and 2 January to 6 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 14 December to 18 December, 18 December to 22 December, and 6 January to 10 January.

Issued Dec 4

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Thunderstorm asthma advice issued as storms loom in Victoria

21:33 EDT

Victorians who experience breathing difficulties or asthma have been advised to take extra care this evening, with a cool change and thunderstorms predicted for the state.

Queensland storms: Lockyer Valley, Ipswich clean up after night of destruction

19:24 EDT

Two homes in south-east Queensland were destroyed by fire during yesterday's super cell storms, which also overturned caravans and saw a teenager struck by lightning.

Stormy start to summer for southeast QLD

17:25 EDT

Saturday's storms produced large hail, intense rainfall and destructive winds to several locations across southeast Queensland as two large storms rolled over in quick succession.