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Adelaide 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
28
low
29
med
30
high
31
high
Aug 1
med
2
low
3
4
5
6
high
7
low
8
low
9
high
10
low
11
low
12
13
low
14
med
15
med
16
med
17
med
18
19
med
20
med
21
22
low
23
24
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 August to 11 August, 19 August to 23 August, and 29 August to 2 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 August to 16 August, and 29 August to 2 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 August to 10 August, 19 August to 23 August, and 29 August to 2 September.

Issued Jul 26

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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