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Adelaide 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
19
low
20
low
21
low
22
low
23
low
24
low
25
26
27
low
28
29
30
med
Jul 1
med
2
high
3
med
4
med
5
low
6
7
low
8
med
9
med
10
med
11
low
12
low
13
low
14
low
15
16
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 June to 26 June, 28 June to 2 July, and 18 July to 22 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 July to 14 July, 15 July to 19 July, and 21 July to 25 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 June to 27 June, 11 July to 15 July, and 15 July to 19 July.

Issued Jun 17

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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