Fairfax Media Network

Adelaide 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
25
26
low
27
low
28
29
30
31
Nov 1
low
2
3
med
4
5
low
6
7
low
8
9
10
11
12
low
13
14
15
low
16
med
17
18
low
19
low
20
21
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 October to 1 November, 1 November to 5 November, and 26 November to 30 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 October to 1 November, 7 November to 11 November, and 19 November to 23 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 November to 5 November, 15 November to 19 November, and 19 November to 23 November.

Issued Oct 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Rain to replace heat in Red Centre

13:15 EDT

It's been a hot start to the week in central Australia, although rain and cool relief is on the way.

Australia's contrasting spring weather

09:05 EDT

Snow and 43 degree heat are both forecast in Australia during the next 24 hours.

Rainy month in Brisbane

18:11 EDT

Brisbane is having one of its wettest Octobers in in recent decades following another weekend of severe storms in southeast Queensland.