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Adelaide 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
4
high
5
med
6
low
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
high
12
high
13
med
14
low
15
med
16
high
17
high
18
low
19
20
low
21
low
22
med
23
med
24
med
25
high
26
low
27
med
28
low
29
med
30
low
31
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August, 14 August to 18 August, and 21 August to 25 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 August to 3 September, and 4 September to 8 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 August to 13 August, 14 August to 18 August, and 21 August to 25 August.

Issued Aug 3

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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