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Adelaide 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
18
med
19
low
20
21
med
22
23
med
24
25
low
26
med
27
low
28
high
29
high
30
May 1
low
2
low
3
low
4
5
6
low
7
low
8
med
9
med
10
low
11
low
12
13
low
14
med
15
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 April to 28 April, 7 May to 11 May, and 18 May to 22 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 May to 12 May, and 12 May to 16 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 24 April to 28 April, 7 May to 11 May, and 18 May to 22 May.

Issued Apr 17

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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