Southeast Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
18
19
20
low
21
med
22
low
23
low
24
25
26
low
27
low
28
low
29
low
30
low
31
med
Feb 1
low
2
med
3
low
4
low
5
med
6
low
7
med
8
med
9
low
10
11
low
12
low
13
low
14
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 January to 1 February, 9 February to 13 February, and 16 February to 20 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 January to 3 February, and 6 February to 10 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 January to 1 February, 8 February to 12 February, and 16 February to 20 February.

Issued Jan 16

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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