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Southeast Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Apr 1
high
2
high
3
high
4
high
5
high
6
high
7
med
8
low
9
med
10
low
11
med
12
low
13
low
14
low
15
low
16
med
17
high
18
low
19
med
20
low
21
low
22
med
23
low
24
low
25
low
26
med
27
low
28
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 April to 11 April, 20 April to 24 April, and 25 April to 29 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 April to 8 April, 11 April to 15 April, and 2 May to 6 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 April to 9 April, 20 April to 24 April, and 25 April to 29 April.

Issued Mar 30

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Much of WA ending March on wet note

18:55 EDT March is ending wet for Western Australia's west and south, most of which had a damp start to the month but even for places which have been recently dry.

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