Darling Downs 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 September to 19 September, 19 September to 23 September, and 30 September to 4 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 August to 31 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 September to 19 September, 25 September to 29 September, and 30 September to 4 October.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
A very cold airmass coupled with vigorous a low pressure system caused snow to fall to low levels in Tasmania last night and into this morning, leading to road delays and closures.
Shoalhaven oyster farmers face hundreds of thousands of dollars in losses as floods wash away salinity
Oyster farms flooded in this week's downpour at Greenwell Point on the New South Wales south coast could lose hundreds of thousands of dollars' worth of oysters.
Snow has affected some roads in Tasmania's south, prompting police to warn drivers to use extreme caution after a number of motorists were left stranded on Friday night.