Fairfax Media Network

Darling Downs 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
26
27
28
29
30
low
Oct 1
med
2
low
3
low
4
low
5
6
low
7
8
9
10
11
12
low
13
14
low
15
low
16
low
17
18
low
19
low
20
low
21
high
22
23
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 October to 7 October, 16 October to 20 October, and 20 October to 24 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 October to 26 October, and 27 October to 31 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 October to 10 October, 17 October to 21 October, and 26 October to 30 October.

Issued Sep 25

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Victorian fires: Homes, school holidaymakers come under threat from east coast bushfires

13:45 EST

Bushfires in Victoria's east are threatening properties, and campers heading to Cape Conran, Cabbage Tree Creek and Marlo, east of Lakes Entrance, are being urged to relocate away from the fire area.

Red Cross uses pillowcases to help prepare migrant families for Australia's natural disasters

12:21 EST

Storms can be scary for many of us, but when you are new to Australia and English is not your first language, it can be extra terrifying.

September rain favouring WA

12:18 EST

While the majority of Australia has received less than 20 per cent of their average September rainfall so far this month, a large area of Western Australia is bucking this trend.