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Home › 28-day Rainfall Forecast › Brisbane Rainfall Forecast

Brisbane 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
14
high
15
low
16
17
high
18
high
19
high
20
med
21
low
22
low
23
med
24
low
25
low
26
low
27
med
28
med
29
med
30
low
31
Apr 1
2
3
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
low
8
high
9
low
10
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%		 low
25% to 50%		 med
50% to 75%		 high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 21 March to 25 March, 27 March to 31 March, and 12 April to 16 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 March to 14 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 21 March to 25 March, 27 March to 31 March, and 12 April to 16 April.

Issued Mar 12

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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