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Home › 28-day Rainfall Forecast › Brisbane Rainfall Forecast

Brisbane 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
2
med
3
low
4
low
5
med
6
high
7
high
8
high
9
med
10
low
11
12
13
14
15
low
16
17
low
18
low
19
med
20
med
21
low
22
low
23
med
24
high
25
low
26
27
med
28
med
29
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%		 low
25% to 50%		 med
50% to 75%		 high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 March to 11 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 23 March to 27 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 March to 9 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 17 March to 21 March, 24 March to 28 March, and 29 March to 2 April.

Issued Feb 28

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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