Brisbane 28-day Rainfall Forecast
- period
- 28-day
- 12-month
low
low
high
low
low
low
low
med
med
low
low
low
low
low
low
med
low
low
low
med
med
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 July to 6 July, 14 July to 18 July, and 22 July to 26 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 June to 27 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 4 July to 8 July, 13 July to 17 July, and 20 July to 24 July.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Wild weather on the way for New South Wales
12:42 EST
After a month of mostly high pressure, a cold front and trough will bump away the high and bring some woolly weather later this week to parts of New South Wales.
Turbulent skies over WA's interior
10:55 EST
Following a week of generally clear weather over the interior of WA, thundery clouds and a strong jetstream are leading to storm activity and some magnificent cloud features observable on satellite.
Skyrocketing beanies caused by winter
15:00 EST
We're now past the shortest day of the year and well into winter, so just how wintry is it in southeastern Australia? A weak cold front has just clipped Victoria and southeastern New South Wales, bringing with it frequent showers and fresh winds.
