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Home › 28-day Rainfall Forecast › Brisbane Rainfall Forecast

Brisbane 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
9
10
med
11
med
12
med
13
high
14
high
15
low
16
med
17
18
low
19
20
low
21
low
22
low
23
24
25
26
low
27
low
28
med
29
high
30
high
31
high
Jan 1
med
2
med
3
high
4
med
5
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%		 low
25% to 50%		 med
50% to 75%		 high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 19 December to 23 December, 25 December to 29 December, and 8 January to 12 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 December to 16 December, 21 December to 25 December, and 1 January to 5 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 14 December to 18 December, 25 December to 29 December, and 9 January to 13 January.

Issued Dec 7

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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