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Home › 28-day Rainfall Forecast › Brisbane Rainfall Forecast

Brisbane 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12
med
13
med
14
med
15
med
16
med
17
high
18
19
20
21
22
med
23
24
low
25
low
26
low
27
med
28
low
29
30
low
31
Apr 1
low
2
low
3
low
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
med
8
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%		 low
25% to 50%		 med
50% to 75%		 high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 March to 20 March, 20 March to 24 March, and 30 March to 3 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 March to 12 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 16 March to 20 March, 3 April to 7 April, and 13 April to 17 April.

Issued Mar 10

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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