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Barkly 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Nov 1
2
3
low
4
5
6
7
8
9
low
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 October to 2 November, 9 November to 13 November, and 26 November to 30 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 October to 1 November, 2 November to 6 November, and 14 November to 18 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 November to 6 November, 9 November to 13 November, and 19 November to 23 November.

Issued Oct 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Stormy fortnight in NSW and QLD

14:24 EDT Thunderstorms are due to develop daily across New South Wales and Queensland for almost two weeks.

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