|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 May to 26 May, 28 May to 1 June, and 4 June to 8 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 May to 31 May, 31 May to 4 June, and 6 June to 10 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 May to 26 May, 26 May to 30 May, and 4 June to 8 June.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
18:09 EST The forecast for every day this week is almost identical, windy with showers in southeast, sunny elsewhere and warm in the north.