Fairfax Media Network

Sydney 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
25
high
26
low
27
med
28
high
29
med
30
med
31
med
Apr 1
low
2
high
3
low
4
low
5
low
6
7
low
8
low
9
10
11
med
12
low
13
low
14
low
15
16
17
18
19
high
20
low
21
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 March to 3 April, 8 April to 12 April, and 12 April to 16 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 March to 4 April, and 18 April to 22 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 April to 12 April, and 12 April to 16 April.

Issued Mar 24

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Category three cyclone possible for north Queensland as tropical low strengthens: BOM

20:41 EDT

A tropical low brewing 600 kilometres north-east of the Queensland coast could make landfall somewhere between Cairns and Townsville early next week as a category three cyclone or higher, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) says.

Cyclone brewing in north Queensland prompting new residents to prepare early

16:26 EDT

Cyclone preparation comes second nature to many north Queenslanders.

Sydney's sodden March

14:34 EDT

Sydney is having its wettest March in 33 years after yet another showery night.