Fairfax Media Network

Sydney 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
19
med
20
high
21
low
22
low
23
24
high
25
med
26
med
27
28
low
29
low
30
low
31
Feb 1
2
low
3
4
5
med
6
med
7
med
8
low
9
10
low
11
12
med
13
med
14
med
15
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 9 February to 13 February, and 14 February to 18 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 January to 25 January, and 18 February to 22 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 January to 3 February, 9 February to 13 February, and 15 February to 19 February.

Issued Jan 17

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Fire fuel loads increase after recent heat in NSW

16:34 EDT

Prolonged heatwave conditions are helping elevate the bushfire threat in parts of New South Wales this week, after a slow start to the season.

Queensland weather: Heatwave conditions to return on Wednesday

16:09 EDT

A four-day heatwave that begins on Wednesday will bring the same kind of conditions that saw more than 200 Queenslanders treated for heat stroke and dehydration last week.

Federal MP calls on banks to develop offsetting options to help farmers save in the good times

16:05 EDT

A Queensland MP is calling on the major banks to develop offsetting options for farm management deposits to help landholders save in the good times.