|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 October to 30 October, 13 November to 17 November, and 21 November to 25 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 October to 4 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 22 November to 26 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 October to 30 October, 16 November to 20 November, and 21 November to 25 November.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
20:25 EDT A dwindling number of volunteers is collecting some of the weather bureau's most important data from across South Australia.