Fairfax Media Network

Sydney 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
3
med
4
high
5
high
6
high
7
high
8
med
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
low
17
18
19
low
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
low
28
med
29
low
30
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 September to 12 September, 24 September to 28 September, and 2 October to 6 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 August to 4 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 September to 12 September, 23 September to 27 September, and 27 September to 1 October.

Issued Sep 2

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Spring in Canberra: warmer weather, blooming flowers and thousands of bird calls

10:03 EST

Winter is finally over, so what can we expect for the next few months and, more importantly, why? Sean Carson at the Bureau of Meteorology said springtime in the capital is marked by warmer, windier weather.

Drier weather leads to forest fires emerging as greatest threat this summer

07:18 EST

The latest bushfire outlook indicates a heightened risk of forest fires in southern Australia this summer.

Mixed season for Western Australian grain growers

06:24 EST

After one of the best starts to a season in a decade, disappointing winter rain has dwindled crop prospects in Western Australia's Eastern Wheatbelt.