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Sydney 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
2
low
3
med
4
5
6
7
low
8
9
low
10
low
11
high
12
13
14
15
16
low
17
low
18
med
19
low
20
low
21
high
22
med
23
med
24
low
25
26
27
low
28
29
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 October to 10 October, 17 October to 21 October, and 1 November to 5 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 October to 16 October, 23 October to 27 October, and 29 October to 2 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 October to 10 October, 11 October to 15 October, and 17 October to 21 October.

Issued Sep 30

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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