Fairfax Media Network

Southern Tablelands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
18
med
19
low
20
med
21
low
22
med
23
high
24
med
25
med
26
med
27
low
28
low
29
low
30
low
31
Nov 1
2
med
3
med
4
low
5
low
6
med
7
8
9
10
low
11
12
low
13
med
14
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 October to 3 November, 9 November to 13 November, and 14 November to 18 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 October to 27 October, and 5 November to 9 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 October to 3 November, 9 November to 13 November, and 15 November to 19 November.

Issued Oct 17

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Rain brings some relief but adds to despair in parts of New South Wales

13:58 EDT

Spring rain has brought a sense of relief to some farmers in parts of New South Wales who have been battling drought conditions.

Rain returning to NSW in October

10:18 EDT

There has been a remarkable change in the weather across NSW during October, with some drought-weary areas of the state receiving their heaviest rain so far this year.

Military veterans combat outback drought while regaining a sense of self

06:59 EDT

A group of army veterans who have served in some of the toughest wars in history have travelled hundreds of kilometres to a different hostile environment — drought-affected Queensland.