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Southern Tablelands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
29
low
30
low
31
Jan 1
low
2
low
3
low
4
med
5
high
6
low
7
low
8
high
9
high
10
low
11
med
12
med
13
low
14
high
15
high
16
low
17
low
18
low
19
low
20
low
21
low
22
low
23
low
24
low
25
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 1 January to 5 January, 19 January to 23 January, and 25 January to 29 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 1 January to 5 January, 7 January to 11 January, and 29 January to 2 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 January to 5 January, 26 January to 30 January, and 30 January to 3 February.

Issued Dec 27

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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