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Southern Tablelands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
30
31
Sep 1
high
2
med
3
low
4
high
5
low
6
7
med
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
low
12
med
13
med
14
low
15
low
16
low
17
low
18
low
19
low
20
low
21
22
med
23
low
24
low
25
med
26
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 September to 9 September, 10 September to 14 September, and 20 September to 24 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 August to 31 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 September to 9 September, 10 September to 14 September, and 20 September to 24 September.

Issued Aug 29

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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