Southern Tablelands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
19
20
21
low
22
low
23
med
24
med
25
med
26
low
27
low
28
med
29
med
30
low
31
med
Feb 1
2
med
3
med
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
med
8
low
9
10
low
11
med
12
low
13
med
14
high
15
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 January to 29 January, 4 February to 8 February, and 9 February to 13 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 1 February to 5 February, 6 February to 10 February, and 10 February to 14 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 4 February to 8 February, 10 February to 14 February, and 21 February to 25 February.

Issued Jan 18

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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