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Snowy Mountains 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
3
4
5
6
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
high
11
12
med
13
low
14
low
15
med
16
high
17
high
18
low
19
low
20
low
21
low
22
23
high
24
med
25
low
26
med
27
low
28
29
med
30
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 August to 11 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 28 August to 1 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 August to 11 August, 12 August to 16 August, and 31 August to 4 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 14 August to 18 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 28 August to 1 September.

Issued Aug 2

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Brisbane's warm start to August

12:22 EST Temperatures reached up to 28.5 degrees in Brisbane yesterday, marking a very warm start to August and the hottest August day since 2009.

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