Northern Tablelands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

period
28-day
12-month

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

25
high

26
low

27
low

Jun 1
med

2
high

3
high

4
med

5
med

6
low

8
low

9
high

10
high

11
low

12
low

13
med

14
low

17
low

18
high

19
high

20
high

21
high

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 17 June to 21 June, 23 June to 27 June, and 27 June to 1 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 May to 2 June, 15 June to 19 June, and 20 June to 24 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 May to 2 June, 2 June to 6 June, and 6 June to 10 June.

Issued May 24

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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