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Northern Tablelands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
low
22
low
23
24
25
low
26
med
27
low
28
low
29
med
30
high
Oct 1
med
2
low
3
low
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
8
9
low
10
med
11
med
12
13
low
14
low
15
low
16
low
17
high
18
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 September to 30 September, 6 October to 10 October, and 14 October to 18 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 September to 2 October, 9 October to 13 October, and 15 October to 19 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 October to 10 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 18 October to 22 October.

Issued Sep 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Darwin sizzling in rare September heat

11:27 EST Darwin sweltered through its second hottest September day on record yesterday, with another stinker on the cards again today.

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