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Northern Tablelands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
18
low
19
med
20
high
21
med
22
med
23
med
24
25
26
low
27
low
28
29
30
med
31
low
Feb 1
low
2
low
3
low
4
5
med
6
med
7
low
8
9
low
10
11
low
12
med
13
low
14
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 9 February to 13 February, and 14 February to 18 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 January to 25 January, and 18 February to 22 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 January to 3 February, 9 February to 13 February, and 15 February to 19 February.

Issued Jan 17

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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