Fairfax Media Network

Northern Tablelands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
low
22
23
24
25
med
26
med
27
med
28
high
Mar 1
2
low
3
high
4
med
5
med
6
med
7
8
9
low
10
low
11
low
12
13
14
low
15
med
16
17
18
19
20
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 February to 1 March, 14 March to 18 March, and 25 March to 29 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18 February to 22 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 February to 3 March, 10 March to 14 March, and 14 March to 18 March.

Issued Feb 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Tropical Cyclone Alfred emerges over the Gulf

13:45 EDT

Early today, a tropical low that has been lingering over the Gulf of Carpentaria was upgraded to tropical cyclone.

Alice Springs the calm centre of Australia's wild weekend weather

13:15 EDT

With wild weather having erupted across the margins of the continent over the weekend, the interior of Australia was pleasantly devoid of significant weather.

Fears hay stocks could run low into winter if good rain does not fall in Hunter Valley

13:13 EDT

A hay contractor in the New South Wales Hunter Valley says the region is drier than he has seen it in over a decade, and that without good rainfall leading into winter, hay supplies could run low.