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Northern Rivers 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
high
22
med
23
24
low
25
med
26
med
27
28
29
30
med
Dec 1
low
2
med
3
med
4
med
5
med
6
med
7
med
8
med
9
med
10
low
11
low
12
low
13
low
14
low
15
med
16
med
17
med
18
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the south Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 November to 3 December, 8 December to 12 December, and 16 December to 20 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 November to 30 November, 1 December to 5 December, and 13 December to 17 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 November to 3 December, 7 December to 11 December, and 19 December to 23 December.

Issued Nov 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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