|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 June to 28 June, 7 July to 11 July, and 15 July to 19 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 July to 9 July, and 11 July to 15 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 June to 29 June, 14 July to 18 July, and 22 July to 26 July.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
09:35 EST Two Southern Downs communities are getting back on their feet after being hit by a tornado-like storm a week ago.