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Northern Rivers 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
22
low
23
low
24
low
25
med
26
high
27
high
28
low
29
high
30
med
31
high
Jan 1
high
2
low
3
low
4
5
6
low
7
8
low
9
low
10
11
low
12
low
13
14
low
15
low
16
low
17
low
18
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 8 January to 12 January, and 12 January to 16 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 December to 30 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 23 January to 27 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 December to 31 December, 8 January to 12 January, and 15 January to 19 January.

Issued Dec 21

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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