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Illawarra 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
23
low
24
low
25
low
26
med
27
high
28
high
29
low
30
low
31
low
Nov 1
2
med
3
low
4
low
5
low
6
med
7
low
8
low
9
10
11
12
high
13
med
14
med
15
med
16
med
17
18
med
19
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 October to 2 November, 9 November to 13 November, and 25 November to 29 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 November to 8 November, 8 November to 12 November, and 13 November to 17 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 November to 6 November, 12 November to 16 November, and 23 November to 27 November.

Issued Oct 22

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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