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Hunter 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
24
high
25
high
26
high
27
high
28
high
29
high
30
low
31
Sep 1
2
low
3
4
5
6
low
7
med
8
low
9
high
10
low
11
12
low
13
med
14
15
16
low
17
low
18
low
19
20
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 September to 9 September, 15 September to 19 September, and 19 September to 23 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 September to 8 September, and 13 September to 17 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 31 August to 4 September, 6 September to 10 September, and 15 September to 19 September.

Issued Aug 22

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Rain prompts RFS to rethink bushfire danger start date

ABC image 15:20 EST Heavy rain in the past few days led the Rural Fire Service to reassess plans to bring forward the bushfire danger period in the Hunter region to September the first.

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