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CW Slopes & Plains 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
May 1
2
3
4
5
6
low
7
8
9
low
10
low
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
med
20
21
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 May to 7 May, 17 May to 21 May, and 26 May to 30 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 May to 21 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 May to 7 May, 22 May to 26 May, and 26 May to 30 May.

Issued Apr 22

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

Unseasonable warmth continuing for South Australia

16:56 EST

A slow moving airmass and mostly sunny skies has brought well above average temperatures to much of SA, and will continue to on Monday.

Dousing for southwest WA

13:21 EST

A strong frontal system is bringing some heavy falls of rain to southwest parts of Western Australia.

Dry end to the wet season for the Top End

15:19 EST

A generally healthy wet season across the Northern Territory's Top End is having a very dry April to finish it off.