CW Slopes & Plains 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 August to 13 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 1 September to 5 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 19 August to 23 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 August to 13 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 1 September to 5 September.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
A Hunter Valley community hit hard by April's super storm says it is confident it will receive government support to clean up its showground.
Strengthening El Nino to reduce rainfall in northern and south-east Australia but wetter conditions for Western Australia
The Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed the El Nino pattern is strengthening in the Pacific and is likely to persist into next year.
A low pressure system which has drenched Perth, the South West and parts of the Wheatbelt has farmers rejoicing.