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CW Slopes & Plains 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
27
28
high
29
med
30
31
low
Jun 1
2
3
4
5
low
6
med
7
med
8
low
9
med
10
med
11
med
12
13
14
med
15
16
low
17
18
19
20
low
21
22
low
23
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 June to 16 June, 21 June to 25 June, and 26 June to 30 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 1 June to 5 June, 5 June to 9 June, and 12 June to 16 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 20 June to 24 June, 25 June to 29 June, and 29 June to 3 July.

Issued May 26

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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