Fairfax Media Network

ACT 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
6
high
7
low
8
9
10
11
12
med
13
med
14
med
15
med
16
med
17
med
18
low
19
med
20
21
22
23
low
24
low
25
med
26
low
27
low
28
med
29
low
30
low
31
low
Jan 1
low
2
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 December to 16 December, 25 December to 29 December, and 30 December to 3 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 December to 14 December, 19 December to 23 December, and 6 January to 10 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 December to 16 December, 16 December to 20 December, and 23 December to 27 December.

Issued Dec 5

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

$14m flood-repair package to fix infrastructure and Beaconsfield mine

13:46 EDT

The federal and state governments have announced up to $14 million will be made available to help Tasmania recover from the .

Do you know the signs of heat stress?

11:31 EDT

Hot weather can take a serious toll on our health.

Thunderstorm asthma advice issued as storms loom in Victoria

21:33 EDT

Victorians who experience breathing difficulties or asthma have been advised to take extra care this evening, with a cool change and thunderstorms predicted for the state.