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A front is bringing blustery winds, showers, small hail and highland snow to Tas, Vic and southern NSW, and brisk winds and showers to SA. Showers for the far NE tropics in moist onshore winds. A strong ridge of high pressure is maintaining dry and settled conditions elsewhere.
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Today, 1:43AM UTC
‘Feels like’ temperature of -20°C at midday as Antarctic blast chills Tasmania
Bitterly cold winds are chilling Tasmania and the far southeastern mainland this Thursday, as a frigid airmass which originated near Antarctica crosses the region. Due to the combination of cold air and strong winds associated with this system, some of the apparent or “feels like” temperatures in Tasmania were bone-chillingly low throughout Thursday morning and even the middle of the day. The "feels-like" temperature accounts for humidity and wind to represent how hot or cold it actually feels, whereas "ambient temperature" is the actual air temperature measured by a thermometer. How cold did it feel in Tasmania and the southern mainland on Thursday? At midday, the 1271-metre summit of kunanyi/Mt Wellington above Hobart had an ambient temperature of -3.2°C, but mean wind speeds around 76 km/h made for an apparent temperature of -20.1°C. At 9:30 am in downtown Hobart, the ambient temperature was 6.7°C but winds around 30 km/h meant that it felt like -1.2°C. At 9 am, the notoriously windy Maatsuyker Island on Tasmania’s southwestern tip had an ambient temperature of 7.3°C and an apparent temperature of -13.8°C (due to mean wind speeds exceeding 100 km/h), which was impressively cold for a weather station located on cliffs beside the sea. At 10:50 am, the tiny Tasmanian Central Highlands town of Liawenee had an ambient temperature of -0.8°C, with an apparent temperature of -10.5°C. On the mainland, Mt William – the highest point in the Grampians in southwestern Victoria (summit 1167 m, weather station at 1150 m) – had an ambient temperature of -0.7°C and an apparent temperature of -8.5°C. Image: Four-hour combined radar and satellite loop for Tasmania and the SE mainland to 11 am (AEST) on Thursday, July 23 2026. Source: Weatherzone. How much rain and snow has fallen? The satellite and radar loop above shows how Tasmania has caught most of the moisture from this system while the southeast mainland has largely missed out on significant precipitation, with the exception of the southernmost parts of Victoria. In the 24 hours to 9 am Thursday, Wonthaggi in Victoria’s South Gippsland region received 23 mm, while several western Tasmanian locations exceeded 25 mm. Widespread snowfalls have also been reported in Tasmania on Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with the snow level expected to drop as low as 300 metres above sea level today. That could mean flakes falling in Hobart’s highest suburbs. Image: The scene near the summit of kunanyi/Mt Wellington just before 11:30 am. Source: hobartcity.com.au. Unfortunately, the mainland alpine region has only seen a dusting of snow thus far with this system, and while snow showers persist this Thursday, only a centimetre or two of fresh snow is likely to augment the moderate existing snow cover at most ski resorts. As mentioned in our story on Wednesday, there are signs of a much snowier system for the mainland alpine region next week, and we’ll keep you informed about that one as the models update. Please check the Weatherzone snow page for the latest forecasts, live cam images and more.
22 Jul 2026, 1:33AM UTC
Huge pool of cold air surging towards SE Australia
A large pool of cold air with origins in the polar region is surging across the Great Australian Bight and is set to chill Tasmania and the southeastern corner of mainland Australia in coming days. The cold air is clearly visible on Wednesday morning’s satellite image, with a tell-tale speckled cloud pattern over the Bight. As Weatherzone meteorologist Corine Brown explains, "the speckled clouds are cumulus cloud cells that form when frigid air moves over relatively warm water. This creates instability, with each cell potentially producing rain, hail, snow, or thunderstorms. Between them lie clear patches of sky." Image: Four-hour combined satellite and radar loop to 11 am (AEST) on Wednesday, July 22, 2026, showing the cold airmass over the Bight pushing eastwards. Source: Weatherzone. Cold winds to fuel frigid "feels like" temperatures Numerous locations across the southeastern mainland and Tasmania are facing their chilliest day of 2026 to date on Thursday. And even if the mercury doesn’t officially register the lowest maximum of the year, it will still likely feel like the coldest day in many places. For example, Melbourne’s coldest day of 2026 so far was July 7, when the maximum reached just 11.0°C. But that was on a relatively still day after a heavy morning fog took many hours to lift. While Melbourne’s Thursday maximum is expected to reach 12°C, the apparent or "feels like" temperature should be no warmer than 6°C for most of the day, due to those bone-chilling southwesterly winds whipping across Victoria. Hobart will feel even colder. While Thursday’s forecast maximum is 9°C, the "feels like" temperature is expected to remain below zero all day, with snow falling to as low as 300 metres above sea level in southern Tasmania. That means Hobart’s highest suburbs could see snow flurries. Image: 3-day forecast for Hobart, Tas. The brown line shows the apparent or "feels like" temperature which is set to remain below freezing throughout daylight hours on Thursday. Source: Weatherzone. How much rain and snow can we expect? This will be a much wetter, snowier system for Tasmania than for the mainland. As the chart below indicates, western and parts of central Tasmania can expect heavy totals of rain or snow in coming days, while accumulated totals from this event will be lighter elsewhere. Image: Accumulated precipitation to 10 am on Saturday, July 25, 2026 across SE Australia, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. The Victorian coastline can expect to see showers for several days, however the overall total from this event will still be below 20 mm at most locations. For the mainland alpine region, a few centimetres of snow should accumulate on Thursday and Friday, and while the top-up will be welcome, this will not be the big blizzard the ski resorts are hoping for, with snow levels still relatively moderate for this time of year. But there are signs of another cold front early next week which could push further north, delivering more meaningful snowfalls. Please check the Weatherzone snow page for the latest forecasts, live snow cams and more.
21 Jul 2026, 12:30AM UTC
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has gone negative – what this means for Australia
Plenty of Sydney sunshine and heavy rain and snow in Tasmania will be some of the impacts caused this week by a negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM) that has just developed in the Southern Hemisphere. What is the Southern Annular Mode? The SAM is an index that reflects changes in the strength and position of a westerly wind belt encircling Antarctica. These westerly winds flow between Australia and Antarctica throughout the year, carrying cold fronts and low pressure systems from west to east. The SAM fluctuates between neutral, positive and negative phases throughout the year: A neutral SAM occurs when the westerly winds are in a normal position for that time of year. When the westerly wind belt strengthens and contracts southward towards Antarctica, the SAM is in a positive phase. When the westerlies slacken and expand further north towards Australia, the SAM is in a negative phase. Unlike El Niño and La Niña, which take months to develop, the SAM can switch between positive and negative phases in a matter of days. Image: Mean 850 hPa wind speed during the Southern Hemisphere’s winter (June to August). Source: ClimateReanalyzer.org What is the SAM doing now? The SAM was recently in a prolonged positive phase between late May and early July, with the index becoming extremely positive in June. This strong positive SAM phase contributed to a lacklustre start to the 2026 snow season in the Australian Alps. The recent positive SAM phase ended around July 9, and the index has continued to drop since then. Over the weekend, the SAM index dropped to -1.83 on Saturday, which is the lowest value since December last year. Forecast models suggest this negative SAM phase should persist for the rest of this week and possibly until the end of July. Image: Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index between November 1, 2025, and July 18, 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. At this time of year, a negative SAM usually causes more winter storm systems over southern Australia and often enhances drier westerly winds over eastern Australia. Tasmania will feel the influence of the negative SAM this week when a powerful low pressure system blasts the state with wind, rain, hail and snow between Wednesday and Friday. This is likely to include low-level snow on Thursday as frigid polar air causes temperatures to plummet across the state. The temperature in Hobart will feel lower than 1°C for most of Thursday. Image: Forecast accumulated precipitation over Australia during the next seven days, showing heave falls in western Tasmania. Source: Weatherzone. Showers will also affect other areas of southern Australia this week, including Victoria, South Australia and southern parts of Western Australia and New South Wales. By contrast, eastern NSW will see a run of dry weather under the influence of westerly winds. Sydney could remain completely dry all week with maximum temperatures reaching 19 to 21°C on most days. This is several degrees above the July monthly average of 16.5°C.