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A few showers and the odd storm over QLD's far north and the NT's eastern Top End in humid easterly winds. Light showers over eastern Qld and northeast NSW in moist southeasterly winds around a high. Showers building for coastal SA & southwest Vic with an approaching cold front.
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Today, 12:07AM UTC
Wind returning to southeastern Australia
After a prolonged period of light winds, a surge of powerful winds and cool air will push through southeastern Australia during the next 48 hours. As we wrote about last week the National Electricity Market (NEM) saw very low wind power generation during the seven days leading up to Thursday, April 18, with the daily wind generation having been under 41 GWh/day for this period. Wind power has improved slightly during the past week, with wind power increasing for a few days over last weekend. The chart below shows that the winds across the NEM have already increased in response to a cold front approaching SA and Vic on Tuesday. The increase in wind power is associated with a cold front sweeping across southeastern Australia, after a stubborn high-pressure system forced many cold fronts south for over a week. The map below shows the cold front marching across the Bight, approaching SA on Tuesday morning. You can also see a broad area of speckled cloud in the Bight, which is a tell-tale sign that a large mass of cold polar air has broken away from the Antarctic region and is venturing into the relatively warm mid-latitudes. Image: Himawari-9 satellite image at 9:30am AEST on Tuesday, April 23. Northwesterly winds will continue to strengthen ahead of the cold front on Tuesday in SA and Vic before a strong southwesterly change hits Adelaide on Tuesday afternoon and Melbourne in the evening. The images below show the wind gust forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Image: Instantaneous wind gust forecast at 1pm AEST on Tuesday (top) (bottom)and Wednesday, April 23 and 24, according to ECMWF While most of this wind should hit the wind power ‘sweet spot’, cut outs could occur at southeastern Vic and southern NSW wind farms late Tuesday into Wednesday. Generally, cut outs occur when wind speeds exceed 90km/h (25 m/s), which is when the wind turbines are turned off to prevent damage. In the image above you can see the front and associated southerly change moving up the NSW coast on Wednesday, hitting Sydney on Wednesday afternoon. Winds will then become light later this week as another high-pressure system moves into the Bight. Cool change coming Ahead of this change, much of southeastern Australia has experienced pleasant autumnal weather, with Sydney’s temperature for the next two days reaching 27°C. However, there will be a large temperature contrast ahead and behind the cold front in the next few days. The image below shows forecast air temperatures around 1.5km above sea level on Wednesday morning, showing the cool airmass moving over parts of SA, VIC, Tas. Behind the cold front strong southwesterly winds will cause temperatures to plummet to around 2-3°C below average across southern Australia; Melbourne and Adelaide's temperature dropping to around 16-18°C for several days following the front. Hobart’s temperature will drop from 22°C on Tuesday to 15°C on Wednesday. Sydney’s temperature will go from 5°C above average on Wednesday to average on Thursday. The coolest air will move over Tas, bringing snow to the alpine region there. Looking ahead, temperatures will recover later this week ahead of another cold front and burst of wind power early next week.
22 Apr 2024, 6:32AM UTC
Anzac Day dawn service weather around Australia
Anzac Day is this Thursday, so we thought we’d give you a brief weather forecast for each capital city for those attending the dawn service. And for those who live outside the capitals, just type your postcode into the search bar on the Weatherzone website or app for your local forecast. The big picture Overall, this is going to be a dry week for most parts of Australia. The main weather action is midweek in the southeast of the country, as you can see on Wednesday's synoptic chart below, with a cold front whipping through Tasmania and Victoria. This is what you could call a classic autumn cold front, meaning the showers, cold air and blustery winds won't penetrate as far north as they often do in winter. But the front will still drag enough cool air northwards to make Thursday morning chilly for anyone attending a dawn service anywhere in southeastern Australia, Tasmania included. Melbourne Melbourne can expect a minimum of 10°C and a maximum of 16°C on Anzac Day but beware, that 10-degree temperature around dawn will feel a whole lot colder with westerly winds and occasional showers. Sydney Sydney will have mild minimums and a top in the high 20s on Wednesday, but cooler air will arrive overnight, making the Anzac Day minimum of 15°C feel a lot cooler in the southwesterly winds, on the way to a max of 22°C. At least it should be dry. Brisbane Brisbane could just about be the pick of the capitals on Anzac Day, with a min of 17°C, a max of 27°C, clear skies and light winds. Canberra Locals will tell you that Canberra always has its first frost a week either side of Anzac Day, and it came on cue this Monday morning. Anzac Day will come close again, with a minimum of 4°C on the way to a top of 19, so rug up if you’re attending the Anzac Day Dawn Service at the Australian War Memorial. Image: It's always chilly on Anzac Day morning at the Australian War Memorial In Canberra. Source: iStock. Perth Perth locals would love nothing more than an absolute deluge any day of the week right now, even on Anzac Day. You won’t be surprised to learn it's not coming this Thursday or any time in at least the next week. Expect clear skies and a minimum of 12°C on the way to a top of 25°C. Adelaide The cold front will clip Adelaide on Tuesday afternoon, dropping max temps by seven or eight degrees between the first half and the second half of the working week. There's not much rain potential, though, and Anzac Day has only a very slight chance of a shower, with a minimum of 10°C and a max of 19°C. Hobart As we told you last week, the whole of Tasmania has been very dry to date in 2024, and while Wednesday looks showery for Hobart, Anzac Day should see a return to cool but mostly dry conditions with a minimum of 9°C and a top of 15°C. Winds should be blustery even around dawn, so wear an extra layer. Darwin The NT capital is looking at a range of 25°C to 35°C. Did you expect anything different? Lest we forget.
22 Apr 2024, 2:19AM UTC
Coldest April night in 25 years for SA towns
Three South Australian towns have shivered through their coldest April night in 25 years as a near-stationary high pressure system centred over southeastern Australia made for windless, chilly nights over the weekend and into Monday morning. The three locations with the 25-year April lows were: Edithburg, which got down to an impressively low minimum of 5.8°C for a coastal town on the Yorke Peninsula. Parafield Airport, which is in the north of the Adelaide metropolitan area, so its low of 2.5°C tells you that it was a frigid old night in the city, even though the official minimum at the West Terrace weather station was 6.3°C. Kingscote Airport, which is located just far enough inland from the seaside town of Kingscote (the largest settlement on Kangaroo Island) to negate the full effect of the ocean's warmth. It dropped to 1.4°C. None of these readings were the coldest in the state to 9 am Monday. That title goes to Keith in the state's Upper South East forecast district, where frost warnings were in place as Weatherzone meteorologist Quincy Tut reported on Sunday, and with good reason. The town of Keith got down to –1°C this Monday morning, its coldest April reading in 11 years and its second subzero night on the trot. Image: Live temps at 6 am Monday, April 22 across SE Australia. You can see the minus one at Keith in SA, just west of the Vic border. The –1°C reading at Keith wasn't quite the coldest overnight temperature anywhere in Australia. That was –1.3°C at Cooma Airport, east of the Snowy Mountains. In autumn and winter, Cooma and even Canberra sometimes get colder than locations up in the mountains. When that happens, it’s usually due to winds at higher altitudes, and that's what happened last night, with Perisher Valley dropping to zero by 9 pm in still conditions before warming slightly as a light breeze kicked in. The same effect occurred in Victoria, with temperatures plummeting perilously close to zero in the Wimmera and Mallee districts of the state's west, while the lowest in the Victorian Alps was a relatively mild 4.4°C at Mt Hotham. Several Tasmanian locations came close to zero overnight, but none quite reached the magic freezing mark, and while we have no statistics on this, we'd imagine it's quite rare for the lowest minimum in South Australia to fall below the coldest recorded low temp in Tasmania. South Australians can expect a warm day today and a warmer Monday night ahead of a cold front extending across the south of the state on Tuesday.
Weather in Business
Today, 12:07AM UTC
Wind returning to southeastern Australia
After a prolonged period of light winds, a surge of powerful winds and cool air will push through southeastern Australia during the next 48 hours. As we wrote about last week the National Electricity Market (NEM) saw very low wind power generation during the seven days leading up to Thursday, April 18, with the daily wind generation having been under 41 GWh/day for this period. Wind power has improved slightly during the past week, with wind power increasing for a few days over last weekend. The chart below shows that the winds across the NEM have already increased in response to a cold front approaching SA and Vic on Tuesday. The increase in wind power is associated with a cold front sweeping across southeastern Australia, after a stubborn high-pressure system forced many cold fronts south for over a week. The map below shows the cold front marching across the Bight, approaching SA on Tuesday morning. You can also see a broad area of speckled cloud in the Bight, which is a tell-tale sign that a large mass of cold polar air has broken away from the Antarctic region and is venturing into the relatively warm mid-latitudes. Image: Himawari-9 satellite image at 9:30am AEST on Tuesday, April 23. Northwesterly winds will continue to strengthen ahead of the cold front on Tuesday in SA and Vic before a strong southwesterly change hits Adelaide on Tuesday afternoon and Melbourne in the evening. The images below show the wind gust forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Image: Instantaneous wind gust forecast at 1pm AEST on Tuesday (top) (bottom)and Wednesday, April 23 and 24, according to ECMWF While most of this wind should hit the wind power ‘sweet spot’, cut outs could occur at southeastern Vic and southern NSW wind farms late Tuesday into Wednesday. Generally, cut outs occur when wind speeds exceed 90km/h (25 m/s), which is when the wind turbines are turned off to prevent damage. In the image above you can see the front and associated southerly change moving up the NSW coast on Wednesday, hitting Sydney on Wednesday afternoon. Winds will then become light later this week as another high-pressure system moves into the Bight. Cool change coming Ahead of this change, much of southeastern Australia has experienced pleasant autumnal weather, with Sydney’s temperature for the next two days reaching 27°C. However, there will be a large temperature contrast ahead and behind the cold front in the next few days. The image below shows forecast air temperatures around 1.5km above sea level on Wednesday morning, showing the cool airmass moving over parts of SA, VIC, Tas. Behind the cold front strong southwesterly winds will cause temperatures to plummet to around 2-3°C below average across southern Australia; Melbourne and Adelaide's temperature dropping to around 16-18°C for several days following the front. Hobart’s temperature will drop from 22°C on Tuesday to 15°C on Wednesday. Sydney’s temperature will go from 5°C above average on Wednesday to average on Thursday. The coolest air will move over Tas, bringing snow to the alpine region there. Looking ahead, temperatures will recover later this week ahead of another cold front and burst of wind power early next week.
18 Apr 2024, 3:20AM UTC
Generation gone with the wind
A weeklong stretch of low wind power was broken on Wednesday evening, as a weak cold front marched across southern Australia. The chart below shows that the National Electricity Market (NEM) has endured a weeklong stretch of low wind generation, with wind power providing around 6% of the NEM’s electricity, down from last year’s average of 13.1% (Mon, April 15 to Wed, April 17). The daily wind generation has been under 41 GWh/day for the last seven days leading up to Thursday, April 18. The calmest winds occurred on Sunday, April 14 with only 24 GWh/day produced or 4.6% of grid demand. To put this in perspective, the average daily wind generation during the last year up to Wednesday, April 17, 2024, was 71 GWh/day, according to data from the open NEM. This prolonged period of low wind was caused by blocking high pressure systems sitting over southern Australia, forcing cold fronts or strong wind further south. The image below shows the Mean Sea Level Pressure chart on the calmest day, Sunday, April 14, with high pressure stubbornly sitting over the southern half of the country. Image: Mean Sea Level Pressure Analysis at 4am AEST on Sunday, April 14. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. As we mentioned earlier today, a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has led to consistent high pressure systems positioned over latitudes well south of Australia during the first three months of the year and during this week. This has kept cold fronts south of the mainland, and even south of Tasmania. READ MORE: WHAT IS THE SAM? The period of light winds ended abruptly on Wednesday evening, with WattClarity reporting that wind production peaking above 3,000 MW at 9:10pm AEST. The increased wind power on Wednesday night, was caused by a couple of factors; A weak cold front swept across the southeast on Wednesday, bringing stronger winds. A very shallow temperature inversion formed in the early evening protecting the surface from the stronger winds, but the wind turbine hub-height (150 metres above the ground) winds remained strong at around 28-38 km/h in SA. Temperature inversions form at night when the ground cools quicker than the air above it, meaning that the temperature increases with height for a thin layer of the atmosphere. During autumn, the temperature inversions are commonly shallow meaning that while the wind could be weak at the surface, the hub heights could continue to experience strong winds. A similar phenomenon could happen again tonight across southern Australia, with another cold front passing across the south. Looking ahead, light winds are expected to continue from Friday as a stubborn high-pressure system builds over the Bight until early to mid-next week.
