It all comes down to this. The fate of an enthralling four-Test series between Australia and India will be decided over the next two days at the Gabba in Brisbane.

The match is poised slightly in Australia’s favour, and given fine weather, the Aussies would be aggressively pushing for victory today and tomorrow in a bid to win the series 2-1 and reclaim the Border-Gavaskar trophy, which will remain with India if the series is drawn.

But will the weather gods smile upon us?

Image: Models show potential for more rain inland than in Brisbane on Monday, but cricket fans are not totally off the hook. Source: ACCESS-C.

The reality is there's rain around the Brisbane area. Just how much, and whether it seriously interrupts the match, is still uncertain.

As Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino tells us, there are basically two ways that bad weather could affect the Test today.

"This morning there could be a few isolated showers around Brisbane with moisture laden air from east," he explains. "The showers are currently offshore but could move towards the Gabba this morning."

Indeed, as play starts, light showers have begun to move towards the Gabba.

The afternoon looks like the best chance of an unbroken period of play, but things get potentially messy again later this afternoon, as they did on day two of the Test.

Do not venture out.😆☔ #AUSvIND pic.twitter.com/MBMh5ZflGa

— BCCI (@BCCI) January 16, 2021

"We'll definitely see severe thunderstorms develop over inland areas of southeast Queensland like the Darling Downs, triggered by a surface trough interacting with an upper level trough. Whether or not they make it to Brisbane remains to be seen," Domensino says.

"The good news is that if the storms hit Brisbane, they will probably not arrive until this evening, with the heaviest rain likely at night.

So all going well, we could get the bulk of today’s play in. And tomorrow for day five of the Test?

"There’s a chance of showers again tomorrow," Domensino says. "There will still be some moisture and instability around southeast Queensland, so there's a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm during the day."

The good news is that there's no big low pressure sitting off the coast – the type of weather system which would see a strong likelihood of persistent rain in Brisbane.

"This is pretty typical Brisbane summer weather," Domensino says. "It's nothing out of the ordinary for anyone who's spent time in that part of the world in summer."

In summary, we might get lucky and the showers might duck and weave their way around the Gabba.

Of course, whether Australia’s shaky batsmen can get enough runs today to put themselves into a winning position is an even harder prediction than the potential for rain.