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Spring soaking on the way for Melbourne, with a month's worth of rain due over a few days

Paul Higgins, Wednesday October 13, 2021 - 05:41 EDT
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Anyone out and about over the next few days would be wise to bring an umbrella. - ABC

A month's worth of rain over four days is about to make Melbourne's already lush green spaces even greener.

October is traditionally the wettest month of the year in Melbourne and across most of Victoria.

Already, the state's capital has recorded 43 millimetres of rain out of an average October's 66mm.

Now a mid-spring soaking is set to deliver another 50 to 60mm in the space of just four days from today through to Saturday.

It's all being driven by a complex low that has tumbled into Victoria today, that will stick around tomorrow before lurking off the coast until the weekend.

The position of that low and the way it evolves will determine the amount of rain in various areas.

Thunderstorms to cross the state

Unfortunately for some parts of the state, there isn't going to be much to make up for a drier-than-average September, or even year.

While parts of eastern Victoria had up to twice their normal rain last month, with record September totals in Maffra and Traralgon among other locations, there was a substantial shortfall in much of the state's south-west and north-west.

Indeed, Mildura in the north-west had only 149mm of rain out of an average 205mm this year to the end of September. And this next round of wet weather will only bring 1 to 5mm.

A band of rain and thunderstorms developed over western Victoria on Wednesday morning, and the rainfall intensity will increase as it drifts to the east over central areas into the evening.

There's the potential for heavy falls and damaging winds with the embedded thunderstorms.

That rain will move across the north-east ranges and into West and South Gippsland early on Thursday.

Of particular concern as the rain event unfolds are the Yarra Ranges and the Latrobe Valley.

Some forecast models suggest 100mm or more will fall all-up over the mountains east of Melbourne.

Those falls could be enough to trigger minor flooding in rivers and creeks, including the Yarra, with the Bureau of Meteorology expecting similar rises in the Bunyip, Kiewa and Latrobe Rivers.

Some warmth will follow the wet

For Melbourne, more rain will move in later on Thursday, with showers continuing on and off during Friday and Saturday before clearing by early Sunday.

Up to 15mm is on the cards for Friday and around 10mm on Saturday.

It'll be a bit of a change from last weekend, when Melburnians picnicked under warm 25 degree Celsius sunshine on Saturday.

The early mail for this Saturday is 15C, and 16C on Sunday.

As always, the forecasts are not set in concrete. But it's a heads up for the potential for soaking rain. Garden watering duty can be put on standby this week!

And there's good news for those who'd rather be warm than wet.

Next week it should be in the mid twenties by Wednesday.


© ABC 2021

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