Weather News

Severe weather threat in TAS, VIC and NSW as Tasman Low looms

Ben Domensino, Thursday June 17, 2021 - 20:40 EST

A deepening Tasman Low will bring a burst of wind, rain and large waves to parts of Tasmania, Victoria and NSW between Friday and Sunday, with flooding possible in some areas.

A cold front that moved over southeastern Australia on Wednesday has since given birth to a low pressure system over the western Tasman Sea.

By Thursday night, the low could be seen clearly in satellite images, sitting roughly 350 km to the east of the eastern tip of Victoria.

Image: Infrared satellite image showing a low pressure system over the Tasman Sea on Thursday night.

This low is expected to deepen into Friday and could linger near Australia’s southeastern coastline for the next couple of days.

The low pressure system will initially remain to the east of Victoria on Friday before drifting further north on Saturday. While it’s not expected to cross the coast, it should remain close enough to land for dangerous rain, wind and waves to affect eastern parts of Tasmania, Victoria and NSW during the next 2-3 days.

The strongest wind and heaviest rain will target eastern Tasmania, eastern Victoria and southeastern NSW on Friday.

Some areas could see 20-40mm of rain, with flood watches and minor flood warnings already in place for parts of eastern Tasmania and the East Gippsland region in Victoria. A road weather alert has also been issued in parts of Tasie due to the rain expected on Thursday night into Friday morning.

Image: Forecast accumulated rain between Thursday morning and Sunday night, according to the ECMWF-HRES model.

Rain and strong winds will then spread up into central NSW on Friday night into Saturday as the low moves further north, as conditions ease in Tasmania.

On Saturday, the focus of the rain and blustery south to southwesterly winds will mainly be eastern Victoria and eastern NSW.

Image: Forecast wind (speed and direction) on Friday night, according to the ECMWF-HRES model.

Wind and rain will ease on Sunday as the low pressure system moves out over the Tasman Sea.

In addition to the wind and rain, a surge of large and dangerous waves will also affect coastal areas from Tasmania up to northern NSW between Friday and Sunday. South-facting beaches are likely to see the biggest surf from this system.

Be sure to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings over the next 48 hours if you live in Tasmania, Victoria or NSW.

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